Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models project NYC's highest temperature on April 5 clustering near 85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal conditions, driving trader consensus toward the leading outcomes at 50% implied probability for 86°F or higher and 46% for 84-85°F. The tight split stems from model disagreements on peak afternoon heating, influenced by uncertain fair-weather cumulus cloud cover reducing solar insolation, variable low-level winds affecting boundary layer mixing heights, and NYC's urban heat island effect adding 2-5°F to rural model outputs at Central Park. This far exceeds the 57°F April climatological normal, with historical records around 80°F; upcoming 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs will likely sharpen these estimates ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on April 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 5?
67°F or below 32%
68-69°F 27%
86°F or higher 24%
70-71°F 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
67°F or below
32%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
24%
67°F or below 32%
68-69°F 27%
86°F or higher 24%
70-71°F 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
32%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
27%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
18%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
16%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
15%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
14%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
13%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
2%
86°F or higher
$5 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models project NYC's highest temperature on April 5 clustering near 85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal conditions, driving trader consensus toward the leading outcomes at 50% implied probability for 86°F or higher and 46% for 84-85°F. The tight split stems from model disagreements on peak afternoon heating, influenced by uncertain fair-weather cumulus cloud cover reducing solar insolation, variable low-level winds affecting boundary layer mixing heights, and NYC's urban heat island effect adding 2-5°F to rural model outputs at Central Park. This far exceeds the 57°F April climatological normal, with historical records around 80°F; upcoming 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs will likely sharpen these estimates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$15Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models project NYC's highest temperature on April 5 clustering near 85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal conditions, driving trader consensus toward the leading outcomes at 50% implied probability for 86°F or higher and 46% for 84-85°F. The tight split stems from model disagreements on peak afternoon heating, influenced by uncertain fair-weather cumulus cloud cover reducing solar insolation, variable low-level winds affecting boundary layer mixing heights, and NYC's urban heat island effect adding 2-5°F to rural model outputs at Central Park. This far exceeds the 57°F April climatological normal, with historical records around 80°F; upcoming 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs will likely sharpen these estimates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$15Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models project NYC's highest temperature on April 5 clustering near 85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal conditions, driving trader consensus toward the leading outcomes at 50% implied probability for 86°F or higher and 46% for 84-85°F. The tight split stems from model disagreements on peak afternoon heating, influenced by uncertain fair-weather cumulus cloud cover reducing solar insolation, variable low-level winds affecting boundary layer mixing heights, and NYC's urban heat island effect adding 2-5°F to rural model outputs at Central Park. This far exceeds the 57°F April climatological normal, with historical records around 80°F; upcoming 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs will likely sharpen these estimates ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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