Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw center maximum temperatures near 18°C on April 5, with member spreads spanning 15–22°C amid uncertainty in subtropical ridge strength over Central Europe, driving closely matched market-implied odds for 17–20°C outcomes. This mild outlook follows IMGW's recent weekly briefing noting calm conditions after a cold snap with subzero lows earlier this week, as southerly flows advect warmer air while light winds and partial cloud cover limit extremes. Trader consensus reflects above-normal early April highs—typically 12–14°C—hinging on boundary layer mixing and insolation; new model runs expected twice daily through April 4 could shift probabilities based on refined soil moisture and upper-air patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
18°C 20%
19°C 18%
17°C 15%
21°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
5%
14°C
6%
15°C
10%
16°C
10%
17°C
18%
18°C
20%
19°C
18%
20°C
11%
21°C
11%
22°C or higher
11%
18°C 20%
19°C 18%
17°C 15%
21°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
12°C or below
$250 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$89 Vol.
5%
14°C
$132 Vol.
6%
15°C
$124 Vol.
10%
16°C
$65 Vol.
10%
17°C
$64 Vol.
18%
18°C
$144 Vol.
20%
19°C
$158 Vol.
18%
20°C
$81 Vol.
11%
21°C
$96 Vol.
11%
22°C or higher
$114 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw center maximum temperatures near 18°C on April 5, with member spreads spanning 15–22°C amid uncertainty in subtropical ridge strength over Central Europe, driving closely matched market-implied odds for 17–20°C outcomes. This mild outlook follows IMGW's recent weekly briefing noting calm conditions after a cold snap with subzero lows earlier this week, as southerly flows advect warmer air while light winds and partial cloud cover limit extremes. Trader consensus reflects above-normal early April highs—typically 12–14°C—hinging on boundary layer mixing and insolation; new model runs expected twice daily through April 4 could shift probabilities based on refined soil moisture and upper-air patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volumen
$1,315Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw center maximum temperatures near 18°C on April 5, with member spreads spanning 15–22°C amid uncertainty in subtropical ridge strength over Central Europe, driving closely matched market-implied odds for 17–20°C outcomes. This mild outlook follows IMGW's recent weekly briefing noting calm conditions after a cold snap with subzero lows earlier this week, as southerly flows advect warmer air while light winds and partial cloud cover limit extremes. Trader consensus reflects above-normal early April highs—typically 12–14°C—hinging on boundary layer mixing and insolation; new model runs expected twice daily through April 4 could shift probabilities based on refined soil moisture and upper-air patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,315Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw center maximum temperatures near 18°C on April 5, with member spreads spanning 15–22°C amid uncertainty in subtropical ridge strength over Central Europe, driving closely matched market-implied odds for 17–20°C outcomes. This mild outlook follows IMGW's recent weekly briefing noting calm conditions after a cold snap with subzero lows earlier this week, as southerly flows advect warmer air while light winds and partial cloud cover limit extremes. Trader consensus reflects above-normal early April highs—typically 12–14°C—hinging on boundary layer mixing and insolation; new model runs expected twice daily through April 4 could shift probabilities based on refined soil moisture and upper-air patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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