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Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

13°C 22%

17°C or higher 21%

12°C 20%

14°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

13°C 22%

17°C or higher 21%

12°C 20%

14°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$212 Vol.

1%

8°C

$0 Vol.

10%

9°C

$0 Vol.

10%

10°C

$0 Vol.

9%

11°C

$0 Vol.

17%

12°C

$0 Vol.

20%

13°C

$0 Vol.

22%

14°C

$0 Vol.

20%

15°C

$0 Vol.

19%

16°C

$0 Vol.

11%

17°C or higher

$0 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 around 12-16°C amid significant spread due to uncertain positioning of low-pressure systems over Central Europe and variable cloud cover influencing daytime heating. Historical data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) shows early April highs averaging 12-13°C, with deviations driven by northerly cold advection versus westerly mild flows, explaining the near-even odds across 12-17°C outcomes. Extremes like 17°C+ (20.5%) hinge on clear skies and southerly winds, while sub-10°C remains unlikely (below 10%). Updated 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen this market-implied distribution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 around 12-16°C amid significant spread due to uncertain positioning of low-pressure systems over Central Europe and variable cloud cover influencing daytime heating. Historical data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) shows early April highs averaging 12-13°C, with deviations driven by northerly cold advection versus westerly mild flows, explaining the near-even odds across 12-17°C outcomes. Extremes like 17°C+ (20.5%) hinge on clear skies and southerly winds, while sub-10°C remains unlikely (below 10%). Updated 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen this market-implied distribution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 around 12-16°C amid significant spread due to uncertain positioning of low-pressure systems over Central Europe and variable cloud cover influencing daytime heating. Historical data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) shows early April highs averaging 12-13°C, with deviations driven by northerly cold advection versus westerly mild flows, explaining the near-even odds across 12-17°C outcomes. Extremes like 17°C+ (20.5%) hinge on clear skies and southerly winds, while sub-10°C remains unlikely (below 10%). Updated 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen this market-implied distribution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 around 12-16°C amid significant spread due to uncertain positioning of low-pressure systems over Central Europe and variable cloud cover influencing daytime heating. Historical data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) shows early April highs averaging 12-13°C, with deviations driven by northerly cold advection versus westerly mild flows, explaining the near-even odds across 12-17°C outcomes. Extremes like 17°C+ (20.5%) hinge on clear skies and southerly winds, while sub-10°C remains unlikely (below 10%). Updated 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen this market-implied distribution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "13°C" con 22%, seguido de "17°C or higher" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 22¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 29, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?" es "13°C" con 22%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "17°C or higher" con 21%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.