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Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

22°C or higher 31%

19°C 28%

20°C 28%

18°C 27%

Polymarket
NEW

22°C or higher 31%

19°C 28%

20°C 28%

18°C 27%

Polymarket
NEW

12°C or below

$415 Vol.

1%

13°C

$295 Vol.

1%

14°C

$276 Vol.

1%

15°C

$48 Vol.

7%

16°C

$17 Vol.

10%

17°C

$9 Vol.

17%

18°C

$5 Vol.

27%

19°C

$5 Vol.

28%

20°C

$13 Vol.

30%

21°C

$8 Vol.

27%

22°C or higher

$10 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 18°C at 39% implied probability for April 3 in Wellington, closely trailed by 17°C and 22°C or higher both at 29.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in four-day numerical weather prediction models amid the city's variable maritime climate. NIWA's latest seasonal outlook for February-April 2026 projects near-average temperatures—historically around 17°C daytime highs—with a weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral, offering little directional bias. Recent MetService updates show daily highs fluctuating 16-20°C under mixed northerlies and southerlies, where persistent warm northerlies could push toward 22°C+ via adiabatic warming, while cloudier southerlies favor 17°C or below. Key differentiators include frontal timing and cloud cover; watch daily ECMWF/GFS ensemble updates for resolution shifts before the event.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 18°C at 39% implied probability for April 3 in Wellington, closely trailed by 17°C and 22°C or higher both at 29.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in four-day numerical weather prediction models amid the city's variable maritime climate. NIWA's latest seasonal outlook for February-April 2026 projects near-average temperatures—historically around 17°C daytime highs—with a weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral, offering little directional bias. Recent MetService updates show daily highs fluctuating 16-20°C under mixed northerlies and southerlies, where persistent warm northerlies could push toward 22°C+ via adiabatic warming, while cloudier southerlies favor 17°C or below. Key differentiators include frontal timing and cloud cover; watch daily ECMWF/GFS ensemble updates for resolution shifts before the event.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 18°C at 39% implied probability for April 3 in Wellington, closely trailed by 17°C and 22°C or higher both at 29.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in four-day numerical weather prediction models amid the city's variable maritime climate. NIWA's latest seasonal outlook for February-April 2026 projects near-average temperatures—historically around 17°C daytime highs—with a weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral, offering little directional bias. Recent MetService updates show daily highs fluctuating 16-20°C under mixed northerlies and southerlies, where persistent warm northerlies could push toward 22°C+ via adiabatic warming, while cloudier southerlies favor 17°C or below. Key differentiators include frontal timing and cloud cover; watch daily ECMWF/GFS ensemble updates for resolution shifts before the event.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 18°C at 39% implied probability for April 3 in Wellington, closely trailed by 17°C and 22°C or higher both at 29.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in four-day numerical weather prediction models amid the city's variable maritime climate. NIWA's latest seasonal outlook for February-April 2026 projects near-average temperatures—historically around 17°C daytime highs—with a weakening La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral, offering little directional bias. Recent MetService updates show daily highs fluctuating 16-20°C under mixed northerlies and southerlies, where persistent warm northerlies could push toward 22°C+ via adiabatic warming, while cloudier southerlies favor 17°C or below. Key differentiators include frontal timing and cloud cover; watch daily ECMWF/GFS ensemble updates for resolution shifts before the event.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "22°C or higher" con 31%, seguido de "20°C" con 30%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 31¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 31% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 29, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?" es "22°C or higher" con 31%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 31% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "20°C" con 30%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.