Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 2, with implied odds tightly clustered around 11–16°C and 14°C slightly leading at 21.5%, diverging from JMA's latest outlook of 18°C maximum amid cloudy skies and 50–70% scattered shower probability. Persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system limits solar insolation and surface heating, while intermittent precipitation and cooler low-level air advection could suppress peaks below climatological early-April averages of 15–16°C at central Tokyo stations. Ensemble model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs show variability of 2–4°C, amplifying doubt; daily JMA updates through April 1 will refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
14°C 22%
15°C 19%
13°C 18%
11°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
9°C or below
10%
10°C
10%
11°C
16%
12°C
16%
13°C
18%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C
16%
17°C
8%
18°C
10%
19°C or higher
2%
14°C 22%
15°C 19%
13°C 18%
11°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
9°C or below
$9 Vol.
10%
10°C
$5 Vol.
10%
11°C
$1 Vol.
16%
12°C
$0 Vol.
16%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
19%
16°C
$0 Vol.
16%
17°C
$1 Vol.
8%
18°C
$5 Vol.
10%
19°C or higher
$34 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 2, with implied odds tightly clustered around 11–16°C and 14°C slightly leading at 21.5%, diverging from JMA's latest outlook of 18°C maximum amid cloudy skies and 50–70% scattered shower probability. Persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system limits solar insolation and surface heating, while intermittent precipitation and cooler low-level air advection could suppress peaks below climatological early-April averages of 15–16°C at central Tokyo stations. Ensemble model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs show variability of 2–4°C, amplifying doubt; daily JMA updates through April 1 will refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$55Fecha de finalización
Apr 2, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 2, with implied odds tightly clustered around 11–16°C and 14°C slightly leading at 21.5%, diverging from JMA's latest outlook of 18°C maximum amid cloudy skies and 50–70% scattered shower probability. Persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system limits solar insolation and surface heating, while intermittent precipitation and cooler low-level air advection could suppress peaks below climatological early-April averages of 15–16°C at central Tokyo stations. Ensemble model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs show variability of 2–4°C, amplifying doubt; daily JMA updates through April 1 will refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$55Fecha de finalización
Apr 2, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 2, with implied odds tightly clustered around 11–16°C and 14°C slightly leading at 21.5%, diverging from JMA's latest outlook of 18°C maximum amid cloudy skies and 50–70% scattered shower probability. Persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system limits solar insolation and surface heating, while intermittent precipitation and cooler low-level air advection could suppress peaks below climatological early-April averages of 15–16°C at central Tokyo stations. Ensemble model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs show variability of 2–4°C, amplifying doubt; daily JMA updates through April 1 will refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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