Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–21°C, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF ensembles, and China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting mild highs amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent cooler conditions on March 30—cloudy with morning rain and highs near 17°C—following a warmer late-March ridge have tempered expectations for extremes, aligning with early April climatology where daily maxima average 18–19°C under variable East Asian jet stream steering and southerly flow potential. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus brief high-pressure clearing, with model spreads of 3–5°C; watch CMA updates and 00Z/12Z runs for resolution shifts before the event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
20°C 24%
17°C 24%
19°C 23%
21°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
3%
16°C
15%
17°C
24%
18°C
18%
19°C
23%
20°C
24%
21°C
22%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
7%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 24%
17°C 24%
19°C 23%
21°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
$49 Vol.
3%
16°C
$10 Vol.
15%
17°C
$1 Vol.
24%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
23%
20°C
$0 Vol.
24%
21°C
$23 Vol.
22%
22°C
$23 Vol.
17%
23°C
$8 Vol.
17%
24°C
$5 Vol.
7%
25°C or higher
$34 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–21°C, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF ensembles, and China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting mild highs amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent cooler conditions on March 30—cloudy with morning rain and highs near 17°C—following a warmer late-March ridge have tempered expectations for extremes, aligning with early April climatology where daily maxima average 18–19°C under variable East Asian jet stream steering and southerly flow potential. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus brief high-pressure clearing, with model spreads of 3–5°C; watch CMA updates and 00Z/12Z runs for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volumen
$154Fecha de finalización
Apr 2, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–21°C, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF ensembles, and China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting mild highs amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent cooler conditions on March 30—cloudy with morning rain and highs near 17°C—following a warmer late-March ridge have tempered expectations for extremes, aligning with early April climatology where daily maxima average 18–19°C under variable East Asian jet stream steering and southerly flow potential. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus brief high-pressure clearing, with model spreads of 3–5°C; watch CMA updates and 00Z/12Z runs for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$154Fecha de finalización
Apr 2, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–21°C, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF ensembles, and China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting mild highs amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent cooler conditions on March 30—cloudy with morning rain and highs near 17°C—following a warmer late-March ridge have tempered expectations for extremes, aligning with early April climatology where daily maxima average 18–19°C under variable East Asian jet stream steering and southerly flow potential. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus brief high-pressure clearing, with model spreads of 3–5°C; watch CMA updates and 00Z/12Z runs for resolution shifts before the event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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