Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Taipei's April 1 high temperature clustering around 19–23°C amid persistent cloud cover, occasional showers, and an approaching frontal system set to destabilize conditions ahead of the Tomb-Sweeping holiday. The slight edge to 21°C (22.0%) over 20°C (20.5%) and 19°C (19.0%) stems from recent observations—March 28 peaked at 21°C—and model consensus favoring mild highs under northeasterly flow, though greater cloudiness or earlier frontal arrival could cap peaks at 19–20°C, while delayed impacts might push toward 23°C (18.0%). Historical early-April averages hover near 23°C, but current cool patterns suppress extremes; watch CWA's next twice-daily updates for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on April 1?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 1?
21°C 38%
20°C 21%
23°C 19%
19°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
15°C or below
2%
16°C
9%
17°C
6%
18°C
9%
19°C
10%
20°C
21%
21°C
22%
22°C
14%
23°C
19%
24°C
11%
25°C or higher
9%
21°C 38%
20°C 21%
23°C 19%
19°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
15°C or below
$105 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C
$9 Vol.
9%
19°C
$5 Vol.
10%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$16 Vol.
22%
22°C
$5 Vol.
14%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$37 Vol.
11%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Taipei's April 1 high temperature clustering around 19–23°C amid persistent cloud cover, occasional showers, and an approaching frontal system set to destabilize conditions ahead of the Tomb-Sweeping holiday. The slight edge to 21°C (22.0%) over 20°C (20.5%) and 19°C (19.0%) stems from recent observations—March 28 peaked at 21°C—and model consensus favoring mild highs under northeasterly flow, though greater cloudiness or earlier frontal arrival could cap peaks at 19–20°C, while delayed impacts might push toward 23°C (18.0%). Historical early-April averages hover near 23°C, but current cool patterns suppress extremes; watch CWA's next twice-daily updates for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$177Fecha de finalización
Apr 1, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Taipei's April 1 high temperature clustering around 19–23°C amid persistent cloud cover, occasional showers, and an approaching frontal system set to destabilize conditions ahead of the Tomb-Sweeping holiday. The slight edge to 21°C (22.0%) over 20°C (20.5%) and 19°C (19.0%) stems from recent observations—March 28 peaked at 21°C—and model consensus favoring mild highs under northeasterly flow, though greater cloudiness or earlier frontal arrival could cap peaks at 19–20°C, while delayed impacts might push toward 23°C (18.0%). Historical early-April averages hover near 23°C, but current cool patterns suppress extremes; watch CWA's next twice-daily updates for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$177Fecha de finalización
Apr 1, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Taipei's April 1 high temperature clustering around 19–23°C amid persistent cloud cover, occasional showers, and an approaching frontal system set to destabilize conditions ahead of the Tomb-Sweeping holiday. The slight edge to 21°C (22.0%) over 20°C (20.5%) and 19°C (19.0%) stems from recent observations—March 28 peaked at 21°C—and model consensus favoring mild highs under northeasterly flow, though greater cloudiness or earlier frontal arrival could cap peaks at 19–20°C, while delayed impacts might push toward 23°C (18.0%). Historical early-April averages hover near 23°C, but current cool patterns suppress extremes; watch CWA's next twice-daily updates for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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