Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in Chicago on March 18, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, which converge on daytime highs in this narrow range amid persistent cool northerly flows and lingering winter-like conditions over the Midwest. Official observations show current anomalies aligning with below-average March norms—historical highs average 43°F—bolstered by high-pressure ridging suppressing warmth. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified short-range accuracy of high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) guidance. Realistic challenges include an unexpected warm front or jet streak shift, potentially lifting temps to 50°F+, though probability remains under 1% per probabilistic outputs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 18 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 18 de marzo?
46-47°F 100.0%
33°F o menos <1%
34-35°F <1%
36-37°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
33°F o menos
No
34-35°F
No
36-37°F
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
Sí
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52°F o más
No
46-47°F 100.0%
33°F o menos <1%
34-35°F <1%
36-37°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
33°F o menos
No
34-35°F
No
36-37°F
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
Sí
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52°F o más
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 14, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in Chicago on March 18, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, which converge on daytime highs in this narrow range amid persistent cool northerly flows and lingering winter-like conditions over the Midwest. Official observations show current anomalies aligning with below-average March norms—historical highs average 43°F—bolstered by high-pressure ridging suppressing warmth. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified short-range accuracy of high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) guidance. Realistic challenges include an unexpected warm front or jet streak shift, potentially lifting temps to 50°F+, though probability remains under 1% per probabilistic outputs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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