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icon for ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?

¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?

icon for ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?

¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?

Subió

53% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Subió

53% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent federal immigration reforms have driven trader views on a potential 2026 population decline. The government's 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan cut permanent resident targets to 380,000 annually while sharply reducing new temporary resident arrivals, including students and workers, to under 385,000. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections show these changes producing net outflows of non-permanent residents that offset natural increase and permanent inflows, yielding flat or negative total population growth for the second straight year. Official Statistics Canada data already recorded a 0.2 percent year-over-year drop in the first quarter, the first such decline in decades. Traders appear to weigh these verified policy shifts and early demographic results as tilting the balance toward contraction by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,488
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent federal immigration reforms have driven trader views on a potential 2026 population decline. The government's 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan cut permanent resident targets to 380,000 annually while sharply reducing new temporary resident arrivals, including students and workers, to under 385,000. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections show these changes producing net outflows of non-permanent residents that offset natural increase and permanent inflows, yielding flat or negative total population growth for the second straight year. Official Statistics Canada data already recorded a 0.2 percent year-over-year drop in the first quarter, the first such decline in decades. Traders appear to weigh these verified policy shifts and early demographic results as tilting the balance toward contraction by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,488
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?" es un mercado de predicción diario en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre si el precio de ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año? terminará más alto ("Up") o más bajo ("Down") que su precio de apertura durante la ventana diario especificada en el título. La probabilidad actual del mercado es 61% para "Bajó". Un precio de 61% significa que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Los precios se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores reaccionan a los movimientos de precio en vivo de ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?" es un mercado activo a corto plazo en Polymarket. El volumen de trading puede acumularse rápidamente a medida que avanza la ventana diario, entra temprano para ayudar a establecer las probabilidades antes de que esta ventana cierre.

Para operar en "¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?", decide si crees que el precio de ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año? al mediodía ET del April 29 será más alto ("Up") o más bajo ("Down") que al mediodía ET del January 27. Compra "Up" si crees que el precio subirá, o "Down" si crees que bajará. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado es correcto, cada acción paga $1,00. Si es incorrecto, las acciones valen $0.

La probabilidad actual para "¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?" es 61% para "Bajó", lo que significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente asigna una probabilidad de 61% de que el precio de ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año? terminará bajó durante esta ventana diario. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores reaccionan a los datos de precio en vivo de ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?. Durante un día completo, las probabilidades reflejan el sentimiento en evolución a medida que se desarrolla la acción de precio del día. Vuelve con frecuencia u opera ahora antes de que la ventana cierre.

El mercado "¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año?" se resuelve comparando el precio de ¿La población de Canadá subió o bajó este año? al mediodía ET del April 29 con el del mediodía ET del January 27, usando los precios de cierre de velas de 1 minuto de Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT. Si el precio al mediodía del April 29 es mayor, el resultado es "Up"; si es menor, "Down"; si es igual, el mercado se resuelve 50-50. Puedes revisar los criterios completos en la sección "Reglas".