Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models peg Milan's highest temperature on March 22 at around 12-13°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 11-13°C outcomes capturing over 78% implied probability. Recent model runs show minimal spread—ECMWF mean at 12.4°C, GFS slightly warmer at 13°C—reflecting a mild zonal flow aloft and light southerly winds, per ARPA Lombardia updates. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability capping diurnal heating (potentially favoring 11°C) versus brief sun breaks pushing toward 13°C, against a March climatological average of 12°C at Milano Linate station. Low forecast uncertainty keeps extremes unlikely, as traders monitor afternoon convective risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Mailand am 22. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Mailand am 22. März?
11°C 26.5%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
14°C 12%
$22,001 Vol.
$22,001 Vol.
8°C oder weniger
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
12%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
2%
18°C oder höher
2%
11°C 26.5%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
14°C 12%
$22,001 Vol.
$22,001 Vol.
8°C oder weniger
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
12%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
2%
18°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models peg Milan's highest temperature on March 22 at around 12-13°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 11-13°C outcomes capturing over 78% implied probability. Recent model runs show minimal spread—ECMWF mean at 12.4°C, GFS slightly warmer at 13°C—reflecting a mild zonal flow aloft and light southerly winds, per ARPA Lombardia updates. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability capping diurnal heating (potentially favoring 11°C) versus brief sun breaks pushing toward 13°C, against a March climatological average of 12°C at Milano Linate station. Low forecast uncertainty keeps extremes unlikely, as traders monitor afternoon convective risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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