Trader consensus favors 17°C (35% implied probability) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 26, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime highs of 16-18°C amid mild Atlantic airflow and partial cloud cover. AEMET's official outlook aligns, projecting 16-19°C with light southerly winds boosting mild conditions after recent days averaging 15-17°C highs. Seasonal norms for late March—typically 15-18°C—reinforce this cluster, while negligible odds for extremes reflect stable jet stream patterns lacking heat anomalies or cold fronts, per NOAA monitoring. Upcoming hourly updates from Madrid-Barajas station could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
17°C 35%
18°C 24.7%
16°C 23%
15°C or below 9%
$80,879 Vol.
$80,879 Vol.
15°C or below
9%
16°C
23%
17°C
35%
18°C
25%
19°C
6%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
17°C 35%
18°C 24.7%
16°C 23%
15°C or below 9%
$80,879 Vol.
$80,879 Vol.
15°C or below
9%
16°C
23%
17°C
35%
18°C
25%
19°C
6%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 17°C (35% implied probability) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 26, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime highs of 16-18°C amid mild Atlantic airflow and partial cloud cover. AEMET's official outlook aligns, projecting 16-19°C with light southerly winds boosting mild conditions after recent days averaging 15-17°C highs. Seasonal norms for late March—typically 15-18°C—reinforce this cluster, while negligible odds for extremes reflect stable jet stream patterns lacking heat anomalies or cold fronts, per NOAA monitoring. Upcoming hourly updates from Madrid-Barajas station could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen