Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Madrid high of 18°C at 33.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (26%) and 19°C (22.5%), reflecting tight forecast model spread from the latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting peak afternoon temperatures in the 17-19°C range under mild high-pressure influence. Recent AEMET updates from the past 24 hours confirm partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds enhancing solar heating, but lingering morning cloud cover introduces uncertainty in maximums, potentially capping at 17°C or pushing to 19°C via urban heat island effects. Historical late-March norms hover around 16-17°C, making this slightly warmer outlook plausible; watch evening forecast refinements for shifts in model consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 28. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 28. März?
18°C 34%
17°C 29%
19°C 23%
16°C 13%
13°C oder darunter
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
5%
16°C
13%
17°C
29%
18°C
34%
19°C
23%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C
5%
23°C oder höher
1%
18°C 34%
17°C 29%
19°C 23%
16°C 13%
13°C oder darunter
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
5%
16°C
13%
17°C
29%
18°C
34%
19°C
23%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C
5%
23°C oder höher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Madrid high of 18°C at 33.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (26%) and 19°C (22.5%), reflecting tight forecast model spread from the latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting peak afternoon temperatures in the 17-19°C range under mild high-pressure influence. Recent AEMET updates from the past 24 hours confirm partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds enhancing solar heating, but lingering morning cloud cover introduces uncertainty in maximums, potentially capping at 17°C or pushing to 19°C via urban heat island effects. Historical late-March norms hover around 16-17°C, making this slightly warmer outlook plausible; watch evening forecast refinements for shifts in model consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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