Incumbent Sen. Cynthia Lummis's December 2025 retirement announcement opened Wyoming's Class 2 Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 93% to retain it, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—Trump carried Wyoming by over 40 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1976. Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 entry, bolstered by Sen. John Barrasso's January endorsement, has positioned her as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats like former Rep. James Byrd face steep structural barriers amid minimal statewide infrastructure. Absent a GOP primary upset, major frontrunner scandal, national anti-Republican wave, or unprecedented turnout shift, the race aligns with historical base rates favoring landslide Republican victories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$5,862 交易量
93%
民主党
$2,172 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Cynthia Lummis's December 2025 retirement announcement opened Wyoming's Class 2 Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 93% to retain it, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—Trump carried Wyoming by over 40 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1976. Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 entry, bolstered by Sen. John Barrasso's January endorsement, has positioned her as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats like former Rep. James Byrd face steep structural barriers amid minimal statewide infrastructure. Absent a GOP primary upset, major frontrunner scandal, national anti-Republican wave, or unprecedented turnout shift, the race aligns with historical base rates favoring landslide Republican victories.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$8,034结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Cynthia Lummis's December 2025 retirement announcement opened Wyoming's Class 2 Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 93% to retain it, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—Trump carried Wyoming by over 40 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1976. Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 entry, bolstered by Sen. John Barrasso's January endorsement, has positioned her as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats like former Rep. James Byrd face steep structural barriers amid minimal statewide infrastructure. Absent a GOP primary upset, major frontrunner scandal, national anti-Republican wave, or unprecedented turnout shift, the race aligns with historical base rates favoring landslide Republican victories.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$8,034结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Cynthia Lummis's December 2025 retirement announcement opened Wyoming's Class 2 Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 93% to retain it, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—Trump carried Wyoming by over 40 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1976. Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 entry, bolstered by Sen. John Barrasso's January endorsement, has positioned her as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats like former Rep. James Byrd face steep structural barriers amid minimal statewide infrastructure. Absent a GOP primary upset, major frontrunner scandal, national anti-Republican wave, or unprecedented turnout shift, the race aligns with historical base rates favoring landslide Republican victories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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