The 92% implied probability on "No" for repealing presidential term limits in 2026 reflects the formidable constitutional barriers under the 22nd Amendment, which caps presidents at two elected terms and requires a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Congress plus ratification by 38 states for repeal—hurdles unmet by any modern effort. With Republicans holding slim majorities post-2024 elections (Senate 53-47, House narrow edge), no bills have been introduced, and President-elect Trump's transition prioritizes cabinet confirmations, border security executive actions, and economic policy over such a radical change. Absent unprecedented bipartisan support or a 2026 midterm supermajority shift, traders see negligible momentum, echoing historical failures like post-FDR proposals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The 92% implied probability on "No" for repealing presidential term limits in 2026 reflects the formidable constitutional barriers under the 22nd Amendment, which caps presidents at two elected terms and requires a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Congress plus ratification by 38 states for repeal—hurdles unmet by any modern effort. With Republicans holding slim majorities post-2024 elections (Senate 53-47, House narrow edge), no bills have been introduced, and President-elect Trump's transition prioritizes cabinet confirmations, border security executive actions, and economic policy over such a radical change. Absent unprecedented bipartisan support or a 2026 midterm supermajority shift, traders see negligible momentum, echoing historical failures like post-FDR proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$6,442结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The 92% implied probability on "No" for repealing presidential term limits in 2026 reflects the formidable constitutional barriers under the 22nd Amendment, which caps presidents at two elected terms and requires a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Congress plus ratification by 38 states for repeal—hurdles unmet by any modern effort. With Republicans holding slim majorities post-2024 elections (Senate 53-47, House narrow edge), no bills have been introduced, and President-elect Trump's transition prioritizes cabinet confirmations, border security executive actions, and economic policy over such a radical change. Absent unprecedented bipartisan support or a 2026 midterm supermajority shift, traders see negligible momentum, echoing historical failures like post-FDR proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
交易量
$6,442结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 92% implied probability on "No" for repealing presidential term limits in 2026 reflects the formidable constitutional barriers under the 22nd Amendment, which caps presidents at two elected terms and requires a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Congress plus ratification by 38 states for repeal—hurdles unmet by any modern effort. With Republicans holding slim majorities post-2024 elections (Senate 53-47, House narrow edge), no bills have been introduced, and President-elect Trump's transition prioritizes cabinet confirmations, border security executive actions, and economic policy over such a radical change. Absent unprecedented bipartisan support or a 2026 midterm supermajority shift, traders see negligible momentum, echoing historical failures like post-FDR proposals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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