Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently stated that the first phase of Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River—mandated under the U.S.-brokered ceasefire and UN Resolution 1701—is nearly complete, with the Lebanese Armed Forces overseeing implementation. However, Hezbollah rejected the government's February timeline granting four months for the more contentious second phase north of the river, with its secretary-general Naim Qassem urging a halt and calling pressures a "grave sin." Israel vowed escalation last week, striking Litani bridges amid ongoing tensions, underscoring enforcement challenges from Iran-backed militants. Traders monitor army progress, potential diplomatic interventions, and risks of renewed cross-border clashes before any resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$857,124 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
<1%
12月31日
31%
$857,124 交易量
3月31日
$840,477 交易量
<1%
12月31日
$16,647 交易量
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently stated that the first phase of Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River—mandated under the U.S.-brokered ceasefire and UN Resolution 1701—is nearly complete, with the Lebanese Armed Forces overseeing implementation. However, Hezbollah rejected the government's February timeline granting four months for the more contentious second phase north of the river, with its secretary-general Naim Qassem urging a halt and calling pressures a "grave sin." Israel vowed escalation last week, striking Litani bridges amid ongoing tensions, underscoring enforcement challenges from Iran-backed militants. Traders monitor army progress, potential diplomatic interventions, and risks of renewed cross-border clashes before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
交易量
$857,124结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently stated that the first phase of Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River—mandated under the U.S.-brokered ceasefire and UN Resolution 1701—is nearly complete, with the Lebanese Armed Forces overseeing implementation. However, Hezbollah rejected the government's February timeline granting four months for the more contentious second phase north of the river, with its secretary-general Naim Qassem urging a halt and calling pressures a "grave sin." Israel vowed escalation last week, striking Litani bridges amid ongoing tensions, underscoring enforcement challenges from Iran-backed militants. Traders monitor army progress, potential diplomatic interventions, and risks of renewed cross-border clashes before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
交易量
$857,124结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently stated that the first phase of Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River—mandated under the U.S.-brokered ceasefire and UN Resolution 1701—is nearly complete, with the Lebanese Armed Forces overseeing implementation. However, Hezbollah rejected the government's February timeline granting four months for the more contentious second phase north of the river, with its secretary-general Naim Qassem urging a halt and calling pressures a "grave sin." Israel vowed escalation last week, striking Litani bridges amid ongoing tensions, underscoring enforcement challenges from Iran-backed militants. Traders monitor army progress, potential diplomatic interventions, and risks of renewed cross-border clashes before any resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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