Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Greenland holding an independence referendum with a majority Yes vote by year-end, driven by the absence of any scheduled ballot or official announcement from the Inatsisartut parliament under Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen's pragmatic Demokraatit-led coalition, which prioritizes gradual autonomy amid heavy reliance on Danish block grants. Recent Danish Folketing elections on March 24 saw pro-swift independence Naleraq secure one of two Greenland seats with 24.6% support—doubling from 2022—testing sentiment but yielding no immediate push for a 2026 referendum, as economic viability through mining remains uncertain. Late-breaking parliamentary motions or external pressures like U.S. interest could shift odds, though structural negotiations with Denmark loom large.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$18,263 交易量
$18,263 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$18,263 交易量
$18,263 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Greenland holding an independence referendum with a majority Yes vote by year-end, driven by the absence of any scheduled ballot or official announcement from the Inatsisartut parliament under Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen's pragmatic Demokraatit-led coalition, which prioritizes gradual autonomy amid heavy reliance on Danish block grants. Recent Danish Folketing elections on March 24 saw pro-swift independence Naleraq secure one of two Greenland seats with 24.6% support—doubling from 2022—testing sentiment but yielding no immediate push for a 2026 referendum, as economic viability through mining remains uncertain. Late-breaking parliamentary motions or external pressures like U.S. interest could shift odds, though structural negotiations with Denmark loom large.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$18,263结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Greenland holding an independence referendum with a majority Yes vote by year-end, driven by the absence of any scheduled ballot or official announcement from the Inatsisartut parliament under Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen's pragmatic Demokraatit-led coalition, which prioritizes gradual autonomy amid heavy reliance on Danish block grants. Recent Danish Folketing elections on March 24 saw pro-swift independence Naleraq secure one of two Greenland seats with 24.6% support—doubling from 2022—testing sentiment but yielding no immediate push for a 2026 referendum, as economic viability through mining remains uncertain. Late-breaking parliamentary motions or external pressures like U.S. interest could shift odds, though structural negotiations with Denmark loom large.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,263结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Greenland holding an independence referendum with a majority Yes vote by year-end, driven by the absence of any scheduled ballot or official announcement from the Inatsisartut parliament under Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen's pragmatic Demokraatit-led coalition, which prioritizes gradual autonomy amid heavy reliance on Danish block grants. Recent Danish Folketing elections on March 24 saw pro-swift independence Naleraq secure one of two Greenland seats with 24.6% support—doubling from 2022—testing sentiment but yielding no immediate push for a 2026 referendum, as economic viability through mining remains uncertain. Late-breaking parliamentary motions or external pressures like U.S. interest could shift odds, though structural negotiations with Denmark loom large.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题