Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian agent facing US charges by April 30, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI arrests despite escalated tensions. The most recent major development—a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an Iranian intelligence agent tied to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a foiled assassination plot against US officials—concluded a prior case without new charges. Early March US strikes on Iran prompted FBI and DHS high alerts for potential retaliation via sleeper cells or cyberattacks, but no actionable leads have surfaced. With under four weeks remaining, traders see significant barriers to rapid investigative breakthroughs needed for charges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$26,464 交易量
$26,464 交易量
2026-04-30
是
$26,464 交易量
$26,464 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian agent facing US charges by April 30, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI arrests despite escalated tensions. The most recent major development—a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an Iranian intelligence agent tied to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a foiled assassination plot against US officials—concluded a prior case without new charges. Early March US strikes on Iran prompted FBI and DHS high alerts for potential retaliation via sleeper cells or cyberattacks, but no actionable leads have surfaced. With under four weeks remaining, traders see significant barriers to rapid investigative breakthroughs needed for charges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$26,464结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian agent facing US charges by April 30, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI arrests despite escalated tensions. The most recent major development—a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an Iranian intelligence agent tied to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a foiled assassination plot against US officials—concluded a prior case without new charges. Early March US strikes on Iran prompted FBI and DHS high alerts for potential retaliation via sleeper cells or cyberattacks, but no actionable leads have surfaced. With under four weeks remaining, traders see significant barriers to rapid investigative breakthroughs needed for charges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$26,464结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian agent facing US charges by April 30, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI arrests despite escalated tensions. The most recent major development—a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an Iranian intelligence agent tied to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a foiled assassination plot against US officials—concluded a prior case without new charges. Early March US strikes on Iran prompted FBI and DHS high alerts for potential retaliation via sleeper cells or cyberattacks, but no actionable leads have surfaced. With under four weeks remaining, traders see significant barriers to rapid investigative breakthroughs needed for charges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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