Market icon
政治·特朗普

特朗普在2027年之前会赦免谁？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

特朗普在2027年之前会赦免谁？

$133,042 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$133,042 交易量

Polymarket

唐纳德·布罗迪

$0 交易量

56%

斯蒂芬·布罗迪

$0 交易量

54%

罗杰·斯通

$0 交易量

29%

马特·盖茨

$0 交易量

42%

丹尼尔·佩尼

$0 交易量

38%

Keonne Rodriguez

$0 交易量

31%

瑞安·萨拉梅

$15,015 交易量

26%

Young Thug

$0 交易量

31%

罗杰·维尔

$0 交易量

17%

鲍勃·梅嫩德斯

$0 交易量

19%

史蒂夫·班农

$0 交易量

17%

乔·埃克索蒂克

$0 交易量

14%

马丁·施克雷利

$2,774 交易量

12%

埃里克·亚当斯

$0 交易量

12%

朱利安·阿桑奇

$1,500 交易量

11%

Do Kwon

$14,809 交易量

9%

尼古拉斯·马杜罗

$5,256 交易量

9%

吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦尔

$9,382 交易量

8%

萨姆·班克曼-弗里德

$34,396 交易量

8%

Diddy

$0 交易量

8%

伊丽莎白·霍姆斯

$0 交易量

14%

爱德华·斯诺登

$1,729 交易量

7%

埃隆·马斯克

$48,180 交易量

6%

安托万·马西

$0 交易量

6%

德里克·肖万

$0 交易量

5%

亨特·拜登

$0 交易量

5%

他自己

$0 交易量

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to issue pardons for most non-violent January 6 Capitol riot defendants on his first day in office, January 20, 2025—a promise reiterated post his November 2024 election win and echoed in recent interviews—driving trader focus on those outcomes amid historical patterns from his first term, where he granted clemency to allies like Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and Steve Bannon facing federal charges. Speculation also targets figures such as Ross Ulbricht, though without explicit commitments, while broader pardon power remains Trump's unilateral discretion through his term ending in 2029. Traders watch transition announcements, legal developments, and early executive actions for catalysts that could shift probabilities before 2027 resolution.

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to issue pardons for most non-violent January 6 Capitol riot defendants on his first day in office, January 20, 2025—a promise reiterated post his November 2024 election win and echoed in recent interviews—driving trader focus on those outcomes amid historical patterns from his first term, where he granted clemency to allies like Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and Steve Bannon facing federal charges. Speculation also targets figures such as Ross Ulbricht, though without explicit commitments, while broader pardon power remains Trump's unilateral discretion through his term ending in 2029. Traders watch transition announcements, legal developments, and early executive actions for catalysts that could shift probabilities before 2027 resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to issue pardons for most non-violent January 6 Capitol riot defendants on his first day in office, January 20, 2025—a promise reiterated post his November 2024 election win and echoed in recent interviews—driving trader focus on those outcomes amid historical patterns from his first term, where he granted clemency to allies like Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and Steve Bannon facing federal charges. Speculation also targets figures such as Ross Ulbricht, though without explicit commitments, while broader pardon power remains Trump's unilateral discretion through his term ending in 2029. Traders watch transition announcements, legal developments, and early executive actions for catalysts that could shift probabilities before 2027 resolution.

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to issue pardons for most non-violent January 6 Capitol riot defendants on his first day in office, January 20, 2025—a promise reiterated post his November 2024 election win and echoed in recent interviews—driving trader focus on those outcomes amid historical patterns from his first term, where he granted clemency to allies like Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and Steve Bannon facing federal charges. Speculation also targets figures such as Ross Ulbricht, though without explicit commitments, while broader pardon power remains Trump's unilateral discretion through his term ending in 2029. Traders watch transition announcements, legal developments, and early executive actions for catalysts that could shift probabilities before 2027 resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"特朗普在2027年之前会赦免谁？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 27 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"唐纳德·布罗迪"，概率为 56%，其次是"斯蒂芬·布罗迪"，概率为 54%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 56¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 56%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"特朗普在2027年之前会赦免谁？"已产生 $133K 的总交易量（自Nov 18, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"特朗普在2027年之前会赦免谁？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 27 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"特朗普在2027年之前会赦免谁？"的当前领先者是"唐纳德·布罗迪"，概率为 56%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 56%。紧随其后的结果是"斯蒂芬·布罗迪"，概率为 54%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"特朗普在2027年之前会赦免谁？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。