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政治·中东

下次选举后，谁将成为下一任以色列总理？

Market icon
政治·中东

下次选举后，谁将成为下一任以色列总理？

本杰明·内塔尼亚胡 44%

分组项标题：纳夫塔利·贝内特 24%

加迪·埃岑科特 16.2%

分组项标题：Yair Lapid 2.9%

Polymarket

$3,642,615 交易量

本杰明·内塔尼亚胡 44%

分组项标题：纳夫塔利·贝内特 24%

加迪·埃岑科特 16.2%

分组项标题：Yair Lapid 2.9%

Polymarket

$3,642,615 交易量

本杰明·内塔尼亚胡

$450,193 交易量

44%

分组项标题：纳夫塔利·贝内特

$781,927 交易量

24%

加迪·埃岑科特

$492,547 交易量

16%

分组项标题：Yair Lapid

$296,813 交易量

3%

本尼·甘茨

$174,921 交易量

2%

分组项标题：Avigdor Lieberman

$328,266 交易量

2%

亚里夫·列文

$105,709 交易量

2%

分组项标题：伊塔马尔·本-吉维尔

$109,698 交易量

1%

亚伊尔·戈兰

$249,618 交易量

1%

吉迪恩·萨尔

$0 交易量

1%

尤西·科恩

$332,202 交易量

1%

艾耶莱特·沙克德

$64,730 交易量

1%

约阿兹·亨德尔

$0 交易量

<1%

摩西·费格林

$255,991 交易量

<1%

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls have solidified Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored frontrunner for Israel's next prime minister after the scheduled October 2026 Knesset election, with Likud projected at 28 seats and Netanyahu leading head-to-head matchups at 40-53% against rivals. A pivotal March 19 Zman Israel survey marked the first time Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtook Naftali Bennett's at 16 versus 15 seats, positioning Eisenkot as the top anti-Netanyahu challenger and boosting his market share amid opposition bloc gains to 55-59 seats. Bennett, slipping slightly in preferences, sharpened attacks on Netanyahu's wartime policies and vowed to lead a replacement coalition, while blocs remain tightly contested at roughly 51-60 seats, heightening uncertainty over coalition negotiations.

Recent polls have solidified Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored frontrunner for Israel's next prime minister after the scheduled October 2026 Knesset election, with Likud projected at 28 seats and Netanyahu leading head-to-head matchups at 40-53% against rivals. A pivotal March 19 Zman Israel survey marked the first time Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtook Naftali Bennett's at 16 versus 15 seats, positioning Eisenkot as the top anti-Netanyahu challenger and boosting his market share amid opposition bloc gains to 55-59 seats. Bennett, slipping slightly in preferences, sharpened attacks on Netanyahu's wartime policies and vowed to lead a replacement coalition, while blocs remain tightly contested at roughly 51-60 seats, heightening uncertainty over coalition negotiations.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls have solidified Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored frontrunner for Israel's next prime minister after the scheduled October 2026 Knesset election, with Likud projected at 28 seats and Netanyahu leading head-to-head matchups at 40-53% against rivals. A pivotal March 19 Zman Israel survey marked the first time Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtook Naftali Bennett's at 16 versus 15 seats, positioning Eisenkot as the top anti-Netanyahu challenger and boosting his market share amid opposition bloc gains to 55-59 seats. Bennett, slipping slightly in preferences, sharpened attacks on Netanyahu's wartime policies and vowed to lead a replacement coalition, while blocs remain tightly contested at roughly 51-60 seats, heightening uncertainty over coalition negotiations.

Recent polls have solidified Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored frontrunner for Israel's next prime minister after the scheduled October 2026 Knesset election, with Likud projected at 28 seats and Netanyahu leading head-to-head matchups at 40-53% against rivals. A pivotal March 19 Zman Israel survey marked the first time Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtook Naftali Bennett's at 16 versus 15 seats, positioning Eisenkot as the top anti-Netanyahu challenger and boosting his market share amid opposition bloc gains to 55-59 seats. Bennett, slipping slightly in preferences, sharpened attacks on Netanyahu's wartime policies and vowed to lead a replacement coalition, while blocs remain tightly contested at roughly 51-60 seats, heightening uncertainty over coalition negotiations.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"下次选举后，谁将成为下一任以色列总理？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 14 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"本杰明·内塔尼亚胡"，概率为 44%，其次是"分组项标题：纳夫塔利·贝内特"，概率为 24%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 44¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 44%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"下次选举后，谁将成为下一任以色列总理？"已产生 $3.6 million 的总交易量（自Nov 15, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"下次选举后，谁将成为下一任以色列总理？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 14 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"下次选举后，谁将成为下一任以色列总理？"的当前领先者是"本杰明·内塔尼亚胡"，概率为 44%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 44%。紧随其后的结果是"分组项标题：纳夫塔利·贝内特"，概率为 24%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"下次选举后，谁将成为下一任以色列总理？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。