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选举·特朗普

NY-12民主党初选获胜者

Market icon
选举·特朗普

NY-12民主党初选获胜者

Micah Lasher 43%

Alex Bores 28%

杰克·施洛斯伯格 18%

乔治·康威 3.0%

Polymarket

$105,519 交易量

Micah Lasher 43%

Alex Bores 28%

杰克·施洛斯伯格 18%

乔治·康威 3.0%

Polymarket

$105,519 交易量

Micah Lasher

$4,605 交易量

43%

Alex Bores

$2,877 交易量

27%

杰克·施洛斯伯格

$6,131 交易量

18%

乔治·康威

$1,409 交易量

3%

埃里克·博彻

$1,823 交易量

3%

莉兹·克鲁格

$36,794 交易量

1%

朱莉·梅宁

$22,807 交易量

1%

卡梅伦·卡斯基

$2,313 交易量

1%

莉娜·汗

$1,801 交易量

1%

安德鲁·库默

$1,559 交易量

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 交易量

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,473 交易量

<1%

盖尔·布鲁尔

$1,244 交易量

<1%

卡罗琳·马洛尼

$1,789 交易量

<1%

布拉德·兰德

$1,255 交易量

<1%

切尔西·克林顿

$6,916 交易量

<1%

利亚姆·埃尔金德

$1,454 交易量

<1%

斯科特·斯金格

$1,964 交易量

<1%

辛西娅·尼克松

$1,641 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Democratic primary for New York's 12th Congressional District on June 23, trader consensus favors Micah Lasher at 42% implied probability, propelled by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's March endorsement—praising his City Hall experience on gun safety and state funding—and over $770,000 in recent ad buys from the Stand For New York PAC. Alex Bores holds at 26.5% amid strong early polling leads (20% in late February Public Policy survey), while Jack Schlossberg trails at 17.5% despite Kennedy family name recognition, hampered by critiques of his wealth and personal controversies. Early March surveys showed a tight race among the top three, but Lasher's establishment backing has widened his edge in this crowded field to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, with fundraising and attack ads on Lasher's past Bloomberg-era roles as potential swing factors ahead of the vote.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$105,519
结束日期
2026-06-23
市场开放时间
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Democratic primary for New York's 12th Congressional District on June 23, trader consensus favors Micah Lasher at 42% implied probability, propelled by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's March endorsement—praising his City Hall experience on gun safety and state funding—and over $770,000 in recent ad buys from the Stand For New York PAC. Alex Bores holds at 26.5% amid strong early polling leads (20% in late February Public Policy survey), while Jack Schlossberg trails at 17.5% despite Kennedy family name recognition, hampered by critiques of his wealth and personal controversies. Early March surveys showed a tight race among the top three, but Lasher's establishment backing has widened his edge in this crowded field to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, with fundraising and attack ads on Lasher's past Bloomberg-era roles as potential swing factors ahead of the vote.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$105,519
结束日期
2026-06-23
市场开放时间
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 19 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Micah Lasher"，概率为 43%，其次是"Alex Bores"，概率为 27%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 43¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 43%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"已产生 $105.5K 的总交易量（自Nov 21, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 19 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"Micah Lasher"，概率为 43%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 43%。紧随其后的结果是"Alex Bores"，概率为 27%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。