Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability for New York's 4th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by her narrow 2024 general election victory, strong fundraising, and endorsements from House Democratic leadership. Challengers trail amid limited public polling: Nicholas Sciretta holds second at 18.5%, buoyed by local visibility from recent town halls, while former Assembly member Taylor Darling sits at 6.6% after launching her bid in February criticizing Gillen's vote for a Homeland Security funding package that included ICE resources—though Darling's recent 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. State Sen. Siela Bynoe, who defeated Darling previously, remains uncommitted as of late March, underscoring the race's early dynamics in this competitive swing district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于劳拉·吉伦 73%
尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔 19%
泰勒·达林 6.1%
吉安·琼斯 <1%
最新
最新
2026-06-23
劳拉·吉伦
73%
尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔
19%
泰勒·达林
7%
吉安·琼斯
1%
劳拉·吉伦 73%
尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔 19%
泰勒·达林 6.1%
吉安·琼斯 <1%
最新
最新
2026-06-23
劳拉·吉伦
$3,564 交易量
73%
尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔
$0 交易量
19%
泰勒·达林
$0 交易量
7%
吉安·琼斯
$1,362 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability for New York's 4th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by her narrow 2024 general election victory, strong fundraising, and endorsements from House Democratic leadership. Challengers trail amid limited public polling: Nicholas Sciretta holds second at 18.5%, buoyed by local visibility from recent town halls, while former Assembly member Taylor Darling sits at 6.6% after launching her bid in February criticizing Gillen's vote for a Homeland Security funding package that included ICE resources—though Darling's recent 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. State Sen. Siela Bynoe, who defeated Darling previously, remains uncommitted as of late March, underscoring the race's early dynamics in this competitive swing district.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET
交易量
$4,926结束日期
2026-06-23市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability for New York's 4th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by her narrow 2024 general election victory, strong fundraising, and endorsements from House Democratic leadership. Challengers trail amid limited public polling: Nicholas Sciretta holds second at 18.5%, buoyed by local visibility from recent town halls, while former Assembly member Taylor Darling sits at 6.6% after launching her bid in February criticizing Gillen's vote for a Homeland Security funding package that included ICE resources—though Darling's recent 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. State Sen. Siela Bynoe, who defeated Darling previously, remains uncommitted as of late March, underscoring the race's early dynamics in this competitive swing district.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$4,926结束日期
2026-06-23市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability for New York's 4th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by her narrow 2024 general election victory, strong fundraising, and endorsements from House Democratic leadership. Challengers trail amid limited public polling: Nicholas Sciretta holds second at 18.5%, buoyed by local visibility from recent town halls, while former Assembly member Taylor Darling sits at 6.6% after launching her bid in February criticizing Gillen's vote for a Homeland Security funding package that included ICE resources—though Darling's recent 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. State Sen. Siela Bynoe, who defeated Darling previously, remains uncommitted as of late March, underscoring the race's early dynamics in this competitive swing district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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