President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 has solidified trader consensus at 95.4%, reflecting his extensive central banking experience from 2006-2011 and bipartisan Capitol Hill confidence—78% of GOP staffers and 74% of Democrats in a recent Punchbowl poll expect confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Despite Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold on Senate Banking Committee advancement amid a DOJ probe into Powell, which Tillis deems an assault on Fed independence, sources indicate resolution is likely as Tillis supports Warsh. Challenges include Democratic opposition, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent criticism, stalled paperwork delaying a confirmation hearing, or prolonged legal battles extending past the deadline, potentially allowing Powell to remain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于凯文·沃什 95.4%
朱迪·谢尔顿 1.8%
米歇尔·鲍曼 1.2%
Rick Reider <1%
$14,630,257 交易量
$14,630,257 交易量
Oct 31, 2026
凯文·沃什
95%
朱迪·谢尔顿
2%
凯文·哈塞特
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒
<1%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔
<1%
斯蒂芬·米兰
<1%
斯科特·贝森特
<1%
Rick Reider
1%
米歇尔·鲍曼
1%
凯文·沃什 95.4%
朱迪·谢尔顿 1.8%
米歇尔·鲍曼 1.2%
Rick Reider <1%
$14,630,257 交易量
$14,630,257 交易量
Oct 31, 2026
凯文·沃什
$2,544,907 交易量
95%
朱迪·谢尔顿
$6,694,782 交易量
2%
凯文·哈塞特
$514,590 交易量
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒
$473,157 交易量
<1%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔
$718,553 交易量
<1%
斯蒂芬·米兰
$475,704 交易量
<1%
斯科特·贝森特
$1,363,586 交易量
<1%
Rick Reider
$522,852 交易量
1%
米歇尔·鲍曼
$1,322,293 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 has solidified trader consensus at 95.4%, reflecting his extensive central banking experience from 2006-2011 and bipartisan Capitol Hill confidence—78% of GOP staffers and 74% of Democrats in a recent Punchbowl poll expect confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Despite Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold on Senate Banking Committee advancement amid a DOJ probe into Powell, which Tillis deems an assault on Fed independence, sources indicate resolution is likely as Tillis supports Warsh. Challenges include Democratic opposition, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent criticism, stalled paperwork delaying a confirmation hearing, or prolonged legal battles extending past the deadline, potentially allowing Powell to remain.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
交易量
$14,630,257结束日期
Oct 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 has solidified trader consensus at 95.4%, reflecting his extensive central banking experience from 2006-2011 and bipartisan Capitol Hill confidence—78% of GOP staffers and 74% of Democrats in a recent Punchbowl poll expect confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Despite Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold on Senate Banking Committee advancement amid a DOJ probe into Powell, which Tillis deems an assault on Fed independence, sources indicate resolution is likely as Tillis supports Warsh. Challenges include Democratic opposition, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent criticism, stalled paperwork delaying a confirmation hearing, or prolonged legal battles extending past the deadline, potentially allowing Powell to remain.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$14,630,257结束日期
Oct 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 has solidified trader consensus at 95.4%, reflecting his extensive central banking experience from 2006-2011 and bipartisan Capitol Hill confidence—78% of GOP staffers and 74% of Democrats in a recent Punchbowl poll expect confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Despite Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold on Senate Banking Committee advancement amid a DOJ probe into Powell, which Tillis deems an assault on Fed independence, sources indicate resolution is likely as Tillis supports Warsh. Challenges include Democratic opposition, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent criticism, stalled paperwork delaying a confirmation hearing, or prolonged legal battles extending past the deadline, potentially allowing Powell to remain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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