President Trump's January nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has advanced with a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing now set for April 16, driving trader consensus to overwhelming odds favoring Warsh amid the GOP Senate majority. Recent resolution of Sen. Thom Tillis's initial hold—tied to a DOJ probe of Powell—following nominee meetings, combined with Warsh's hawkish credentials and prior Board of Governors service, underpins this positioning as Powell's term ends May 15. Realistic challenges include hearing disruptions from Democratic scrutiny, prolonged Powell investigation delays, or an unforeseen scandal prompting withdrawal, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest low risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于凯文·沃什 96.4%
朱迪·谢尔顿 1.5%
米歇尔·鲍曼 <1%
斯蒂芬·米兰 <1%
$20,159,896 交易量
$20,159,896 交易量
2026-10-31
凯文·沃什
96%
朱迪·谢尔顿
2%
凯文·哈塞特
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒
<1%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔
<1%
斯蒂芬·米兰
<1%
斯科特·贝森特
<1%
Rick Reider
<1%
米歇尔·鲍曼
1%
凯文·沃什 96.4%
朱迪·谢尔顿 1.5%
米歇尔·鲍曼 <1%
斯蒂芬·米兰 <1%
$20,159,896 交易量
$20,159,896 交易量
2026-10-31
凯文·沃什
$2,793,868 交易量
96%
朱迪·谢尔顿
$9,147,471 交易量
2%
凯文·哈塞特
$807,757 交易量
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒
$738,176 交易量
<1%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔
$964,615 交易量
<1%
斯蒂芬·米兰
$783,956 交易量
<1%
斯科特·贝森特
$2,133,173 交易量
<1%
Rick Reider
$672,158 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·鲍曼
$2,122,777 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's January nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has advanced with a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing now set for April 16, driving trader consensus to overwhelming odds favoring Warsh amid the GOP Senate majority. Recent resolution of Sen. Thom Tillis's initial hold—tied to a DOJ probe of Powell—following nominee meetings, combined with Warsh's hawkish credentials and prior Board of Governors service, underpins this positioning as Powell's term ends May 15. Realistic challenges include hearing disruptions from Democratic scrutiny, prolonged Powell investigation delays, or an unforeseen scandal prompting withdrawal, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest low risk.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
交易量
$20,159,896结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's January nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has advanced with a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing now set for April 16, driving trader consensus to overwhelming odds favoring Warsh amid the GOP Senate majority. Recent resolution of Sen. Thom Tillis's initial hold—tied to a DOJ probe of Powell—following nominee meetings, combined with Warsh's hawkish credentials and prior Board of Governors service, underpins this positioning as Powell's term ends May 15. Realistic challenges include hearing disruptions from Democratic scrutiny, prolonged Powell investigation delays, or an unforeseen scandal prompting withdrawal, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest low risk.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$20,159,896结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's January nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has advanced with a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing now set for April 16, driving trader consensus to overwhelming odds favoring Warsh amid the GOP Senate majority. Recent resolution of Sen. Thom Tillis's initial hold—tied to a DOJ probe of Powell—following nominee meetings, combined with Warsh's hawkish credentials and prior Board of Governors service, underpins this positioning as Powell's term ends May 15. Realistic challenges include hearing disruptions from Democratic scrutiny, prolonged Powell investigation delays, or an unforeseen scandal prompting withdrawal, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest low risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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