Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 79.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's sustained popularity as a moderate Republican who has secured multiple two-year terms in the Democratic-leaning state despite supermajorities in the legislature. Recent polls, including a 2025 UNH survey showing 57% support for his re-election bid, underscore his bipartisan appeal on issues like property taxes and economic policy. The March 10 announcement of economist Amanda Janoo as the first Democratic contender has failed to shift odds, reflecting a thin early Democratic field ahead of the August 11 primaries, where Republican primary dynamics could further solidify the party's path to victory. A novelty independent candidacy by 14-year-old Dean Roy adds minor ballot clutter but poses no structural threat to major-party dominance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
80%
民主党
21%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,664 交易量
80%
民主党
$5,290 交易量
21%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 79.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's sustained popularity as a moderate Republican who has secured multiple two-year terms in the Democratic-leaning state despite supermajorities in the legislature. Recent polls, including a 2025 UNH survey showing 57% support for his re-election bid, underscore his bipartisan appeal on issues like property taxes and economic policy. The March 10 announcement of economist Amanda Janoo as the first Democratic contender has failed to shift odds, reflecting a thin early Democratic field ahead of the August 11 primaries, where Republican primary dynamics could further solidify the party's path to victory. A novelty independent candidacy by 14-year-old Dean Roy adds minor ballot clutter but poses no structural threat to major-party dominance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$7,954结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 79.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's sustained popularity as a moderate Republican who has secured multiple two-year terms in the Democratic-leaning state despite supermajorities in the legislature. Recent polls, including a 2025 UNH survey showing 57% support for his re-election bid, underscore his bipartisan appeal on issues like property taxes and economic policy. The March 10 announcement of economist Amanda Janoo as the first Democratic contender has failed to shift odds, reflecting a thin early Democratic field ahead of the August 11 primaries, where Republican primary dynamics could further solidify the party's path to victory. A novelty independent candidacy by 14-year-old Dean Roy adds minor ballot clutter but poses no structural threat to major-party dominance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$7,954结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 79.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's sustained popularity as a moderate Republican who has secured multiple two-year terms in the Democratic-leaning state despite supermajorities in the legislature. Recent polls, including a 2025 UNH survey showing 57% support for his re-election bid, underscore his bipartisan appeal on issues like property taxes and economic policy. The March 10 announcement of economist Amanda Janoo as the first Democratic contender has failed to shift odds, reflecting a thin early Democratic field ahead of the August 11 primaries, where Republican primary dynamics could further solidify the party's path to victory. A novelty independent candidacy by 14-year-old Dean Roy adds minor ballot clutter but poses no structural threat to major-party dominance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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