美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ？
截至1月31日未发动打击 94%
1月31日 5.2%
1月30日 <1%
1月28日 <1%
$26,391,147 交易量
$26,391,147 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
1月28日
$1,311,211 交易量
<1%
1月28日
$1,311,211 交易量
<1%
1月29日
$1,559,939 交易量
<1%
1月29日
$1,559,939 交易量
<1%
1月30日
$1,645,376 交易量
<1%
1月30日
$1,645,376 交易量
<1%
1月31日
$1,792,955 交易量
5%
1月31日
$1,792,955 交易量
5%
截至1月31日未发动打击
$2,579,280 交易量
94%
截至1月31日未发动打击
$2,579,280 交易量
94%
规则
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
创建于： Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$26,391,147结束日期
Jan 31, 2026创建于
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
已争议
已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ？
截至1月31日未发动打击 94%
1月31日 5.2%
1月30日 <1%
1月28日 <1%
$26,391,147 交易量
$26,391,147 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
1月28日
$1,311,211 交易量
<1%
1月29日
$1,559,939 交易量
<1%
1月30日
$1,645,376 交易量
<1%
1月31日
$1,792,955 交易量
5%
截至1月31日未发动打击
$2,579,280 交易量
94%
关于
交易量
$26,391,147结束日期
Jan 31, 2026创建于
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...注意外部链接。
注意外部链接。
注意外部链接。
注意外部链接。