截至1月31日未发动打击 100.0%
1月12日 <1%
1月13日 <1%
1月14日 <1%
$28,513,815 交易量
$28,513,815 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
1月12日
否
1月13日
否
1月14日
否
1月15日
否
1月16日
否
1月17日
否
1月18日
否
1月19日
否
1月20日
否
1月21日
否
1月22日
否
1月23日
否
1月24日
否
1月25日
否
1月26日
否
1月27日
否
1月28日
否
1月29日
否
1月30日
否
1月31日
否
截至1月31日未发动打击
是
截至1月31日未发动打击 100.0%
1月12日 <1%
1月13日 <1%
1月14日 <1%
$28,513,815 交易量
$28,513,815 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
1月12日
$174,396 交易量
否
1月13日
$352,575 交易量
否
1月14日
$1,357,455 交易量
否
1月15日
$721,329 交易量
否
1月16日
$851,047 交易量
否
1月17日
$509,296 交易量
否
1月18日
$569,914 交易量
否
1月19日
$1,188,559 交易量
否
1月20日
$1,015,021 交易量
否
1月21日
$1,260,514 交易量
否
1月22日
$1,295,692 交易量
否
1月23日
$2,137,803 交易量
否
1月24日
$1,460,613 交易量
否
1月25日
$1,551,909 交易量
否
1月26日
$1,541,870 交易量
否
1月27日
$1,514,603 交易量
否
1月28日
$1,311,211 交易量
否
1月29日
$1,637,680 交易量
否
1月30日
$1,729,141 交易量
否
1月31日
$2,620,126 交易量
否
截至1月31日未发动打击
$3,713,061 交易量
是
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
创建时间: Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$28,513,815结束日期
Jan 31, 2026创建时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否

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