Trader consensus prices 67% odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 and 77% by year-end, reflecting Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations—including potential special operations raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz—despite no confirmed entry to date, with the March 31 outcome resolved No after a month of US-Israel airstrikes degraded Iranian missile and nuclear capabilities. Recent deployments of the 82nd Airborne, Marine Expeditionary Units, and over 50,000 troops to the region, coupled with President Trump's April 2 statements that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue amid running out of air targets, fuel escalation bets. Iran's ongoing missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, plus a UN Security Council vote Friday on Hormuz naval action, heighten risks of boots-on-the-ground escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$102,326,092 交易量
2026-03-01
3月31日
<1%
4月30日
67%
12月31日
78%
$102,326,092 交易量
3月31日
$71,680,028 交易量
<1%
4月30日
$19,784,085 交易量
67%
12月31日
$8,802,942 交易量
78%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Trader consensus prices 67% odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 and 77% by year-end, reflecting Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations—including potential special operations raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz—despite no confirmed entry to date, with the March 31 outcome resolved No after a month of US-Israel airstrikes degraded Iranian missile and nuclear capabilities. Recent deployments of the 82nd Airborne, Marine Expeditionary Units, and over 50,000 troops to the region, coupled with President Trump's April 2 statements that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue amid running out of air targets, fuel escalation bets. Iran's ongoing missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, plus a UN Security Council vote Friday on Hormuz naval action, heighten risks of boots-on-the-ground escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$102,326,092市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Trader consensus prices 67% odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 and 77% by year-end, reflecting Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations—including potential special operations raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz—despite no confirmed entry to date, with the March 31 outcome resolved No after a month of US-Israel airstrikes degraded Iranian missile and nuclear capabilities. Recent deployments of the 82nd Airborne, Marine Expeditionary Units, and over 50,000 troops to the region, coupled with President Trump's April 2 statements that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue amid running out of air targets, fuel escalation bets. Iran's ongoing missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, plus a UN Security Council vote Friday on Hormuz naval action, heighten risks of boots-on-the-ground escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$102,326,092市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus prices 67% odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 and 77% by year-end, reflecting Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations—including potential special operations raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz—despite no confirmed entry to date, with the March 31 outcome resolved No after a month of US-Israel airstrikes degraded Iranian missile and nuclear capabilities. Recent deployments of the 82nd Airborne, Marine Expeditionary Units, and over 50,000 troops to the region, coupled with President Trump's April 2 statements that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue amid running out of air targets, fuel escalation bets. Iran's ongoing missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, plus a UN Security Council vote Friday on Hormuz naval action, heighten risks of boots-on-the-ground escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题