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美国驻波兰大使在3月31日前离开？

Market icon

美国驻波兰大使在3月31日前离开？

是

<1% chance
Polymarket
NEW

是

<1% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Rose ceases to be the U.S. Ambassador to Poland for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rose's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects the absence of any official announcements or credible reports indicating U.S. Ambassador to Poland Thomas Rose will depart by March 31, with the State Department and U.S. Embassy websites confirming his ongoing tenure.** Recently sworn in after Senate confirmation in October 2025 as a Trump appointee, Rose remains actively engaged, as evidenced by his March 24 statement hailing Poland as "Europe's new great power" and an ideal U.S. ally. Earlier February tensions, where he severed contact with Poland's Sejm speaker over Trump remarks, prompted no recall or resignation signals from the administration. With mere days remaining, abrupt scenarios like a sudden resignation, presidential recall, health emergency, or expulsion could theoretically shift outcomes, though institutional norms and lack of precedent make these highly improbable.

**Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects the absence of any official announcements or credible reports indicating U.S. Ambassador to Poland Thomas Rose will depart by March 31, with the State Department and U.S. Embassy websites confirming his ongoing tenure.** Recently sworn in after Senate confirmation in October 2025 as a Trump appointee, Rose remains actively engaged, as evidenced by his March 24 statement hailing Poland as "Europe's new great power" and an ideal U.S. ally. Earlier February tensions, where he severed contact with Poland's Sejm speaker over Trump remarks, prompted no recall or resignation signals from the administration. With mere days remaining, abrupt scenarios like a sudden resignation, presidential recall, health emergency, or expulsion could theoretically shift outcomes, though institutional norms and lack of precedent make these highly improbable.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Rose ceases to be the U.S. Ambassador to Poland for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rose's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects the absence of any official announcements or credible reports indicating U.S. Ambassador to Poland Thomas Rose will depart by March 31, with the State Department and U.S. Embassy websites confirming his ongoing tenure.** Recently sworn in after Senate confirmation in October 2025 as a Trump appointee, Rose remains actively engaged, as evidenced by his March 24 statement hailing Poland as "Europe's new great power" and an ideal U.S. ally. Earlier February tensions, where he severed contact with Poland's Sejm speaker over Trump remarks, prompted no recall or resignation signals from the administration. With mere days remaining, abrupt scenarios like a sudden resignation, presidential recall, health emergency, or expulsion could theoretically shift outcomes, though institutional norms and lack of precedent make these highly improbable.

**Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects the absence of any official announcements or credible reports indicating U.S. Ambassador to Poland Thomas Rose will depart by March 31, with the State Department and U.S. Embassy websites confirming his ongoing tenure.** Recently sworn in after Senate confirmation in October 2025 as a Trump appointee, Rose remains actively engaged, as evidenced by his March 24 statement hailing Poland as "Europe's new great power" and an ideal U.S. ally. Earlier February tensions, where he severed contact with Poland's Sejm speaker over Trump remarks, prompted no recall or resignation signals from the administration. With mere days remaining, abrupt scenarios like a sudden resignation, presidential recall, health emergency, or expulsion could theoretically shift outcomes, though institutional norms and lack of precedent make these highly improbable.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美国驻波兰大使在3月31日前离开？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"美国驻波兰大使将在3月31日前离任？"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 1¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 1%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"美国驻波兰大使在3月31日前离开？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Feb 6, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"美国驻波兰大使在3月31日前离开？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"美国驻波兰大使在3月31日前离开？"的当前领先者是"美国驻波兰大使将在3月31日前离任？"，仅有 1%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"美国驻波兰大使在3月31日前离开？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。