Redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District into a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Donald Trump carrying 55.7% there in 2024, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 57.5%. Attorney Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination outright after topping the March 3 primary at 49% and receiving Ryan Binkley's endorsement following his March 19 withdrawal, avoiding a May 26 runoff and allowing early general election focus. Democrat Dan Barrios, a Richardson City Council member, won his primary decisively but trails significantly in fundraising ($18K cash-on-hand vs. Yarbrough's $198K), contributing to Democrats' low 17% implied probability in this open-seat race ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$24,668 交易量
$24,668 交易量
Nov 4, 2026
共和党
80%
民主党
17%
$24,668 交易量
$24,668 交易量
Nov 4, 2026
共和党
$24,668 交易量
80%
民主党
$0 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District into a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Donald Trump carrying 55.7% there in 2024, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 57.5%. Attorney Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination outright after topping the March 3 primary at 49% and receiving Ryan Binkley's endorsement following his March 19 withdrawal, avoiding a May 26 runoff and allowing early general election focus. Democrat Dan Barrios, a Richardson City Council member, won his primary decisively but trails significantly in fundraising ($18K cash-on-hand vs. Yarbrough's $198K), contributing to Democrats' low 17% implied probability in this open-seat race ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$24,668结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District into a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Donald Trump carrying 55.7% there in 2024, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 57.5%. Attorney Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination outright after topping the March 3 primary at 49% and receiving Ryan Binkley's endorsement following his March 19 withdrawal, avoiding a May 26 runoff and allowing early general election focus. Democrat Dan Barrios, a Richardson City Council member, won his primary decisively but trails significantly in fundraising ($18K cash-on-hand vs. Yarbrough's $198K), contributing to Democrats' low 17% implied probability in this open-seat race ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,668结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle transformed Texas' 32nd Congressional District into a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Donald Trump carrying 55.7% there in 2024, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 57.5%. Attorney Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination outright after topping the March 3 primary at 49% and receiving Ryan Binkley's endorsement following his March 19 withdrawal, avoiding a May 26 runoff and allowing early general election focus. Democrat Dan Barrios, a Richardson City Council member, won his primary decisively but trails significantly in fundraising ($18K cash-on-hand vs. Yarbrough's $198K), contributing to Democrats' low 17% implied probability in this open-seat race ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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