In the wake of Texas's March 3 primaries, state Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination with 53% over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (43%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after neither cleared 50%. Post-primary polls, including PPP's March 4-5 survey showing Talarico leading 44%-43% over Cornyn and 47%-45% over Paxton, reflect a competitive general election landscape. Yet trader consensus implies 55% odds for a Republican win, driven by Texas's historical GOP dominance in Senate races since 1993, stronger Republican turnout base rates, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and Paxton's lead in runoff surveys among conservatives. Border issues and midterm headwinds against Democrats loom as pivotal factors ahead of November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$158,181 交易量
$158,181 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
55%
民主党
44%
$158,181 交易量
$158,181 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$87,775 交易量
55%
民主党
$70,407 交易量
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In the wake of Texas's March 3 primaries, state Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination with 53% over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (43%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after neither cleared 50%. Post-primary polls, including PPP's March 4-5 survey showing Talarico leading 44%-43% over Cornyn and 47%-45% over Paxton, reflect a competitive general election landscape. Yet trader consensus implies 55% odds for a Republican win, driven by Texas's historical GOP dominance in Senate races since 1993, stronger Republican turnout base rates, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and Paxton's lead in runoff surveys among conservatives. Border issues and midterm headwinds against Democrats loom as pivotal factors ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$158,181结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In the wake of Texas's March 3 primaries, state Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination with 53% over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (43%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after neither cleared 50%. Post-primary polls, including PPP's March 4-5 survey showing Talarico leading 44%-43% over Cornyn and 47%-45% over Paxton, reflect a competitive general election landscape. Yet trader consensus implies 55% odds for a Republican win, driven by Texas's historical GOP dominance in Senate races since 1993, stronger Republican turnout base rates, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and Paxton's lead in runoff surveys among conservatives. Border issues and midterm headwinds against Democrats loom as pivotal factors ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$158,181结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the wake of Texas's March 3 primaries, state Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination with 53% over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (43%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after neither cleared 50%. Post-primary polls, including PPP's March 4-5 survey showing Talarico leading 44%-43% over Cornyn and 47%-45% over Paxton, reflect a competitive general election landscape. Yet trader consensus implies 55% odds for a Republican win, driven by Texas's historical GOP dominance in Senate races since 1993, stronger Republican turnout base rates, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and Paxton's lead in runoff surveys among conservatives. Border issues and midterm headwinds against Democrats loom as pivotal factors ahead of November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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