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特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?

Market icon

特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?

$14,992,479 交易量

Jun 30, 2025
Polymarket

$14,992,479 交易量

Polymarket

6月30日

$242,902 交易量

分组项标题:10月31日

$431,981 交易量

12月31日

$1,086,303 交易量

2026年3月31日

$1,053,951 交易量

2026年6月30日

$12,177,341 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$14,992,479
结束日期
Dec 31, 2025
市场开放时间
May 29, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年3月31日" at 100%, followed by "2026年6月30日" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?" has generated $15 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?" is "2026年3月31日" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026年6月30日" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.