Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on South Africa 2026 annual CPI inflation—>5.0% at 32.8% implied probability edging 3.8-4.1% at 29.6% and 4.7-5.0% at 27.0%—reflects the tug-of-war between February's headline CPI cooling to 3.0% (SARB's new target midpoint) on falling fuel and food prices, and upside risks from the Middle East conflict's oil shock pushing crude above $100/barrel. SARB's March MPC held the repo rate at 6.75%, forecasting Q2 CPI near 4% with fuel inflation over 18% before reverting to 3% late 2026, but rand weakness to USD/ZAR ~17 adds imported inflation pressure. Key differentiators include shock persistence, second-round effects, and April fuel levy cuts; watch March CPI release mid-April and May MPC for resolution signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4.7-5.0% 39%
>5.0% 33.0%
3.8-4.1% 29.6%
4.4-4.7% 24.3%
$19,704 交易量
$19,704 交易量
2027-01-20
低于2.6%
3%
2.6-2.9%
10%
2.9-3.2%
12%
3.2-3.5%
24%
3.5-3.8%
19%
3.8-4.1%
30%
4.1-4.4%
20%
4.4-4.7%
24%
4.7-5.0%
27%
>5.0%
33%
4.7-5.0% 39%
>5.0% 33.0%
3.8-4.1% 29.6%
4.4-4.7% 24.3%
$19,704 交易量
$19,704 交易量
2027-01-20
低于2.6%
$0 交易量
3%
2.6-2.9%
$0 交易量
10%
2.9-3.2%
$0 交易量
12%
3.2-3.5%
$0 交易量
24%
3.5-3.8%
$428 交易量
19%
3.8-4.1%
$633 交易量
30%
4.1-4.4%
$458 交易量
20%
4.4-4.7%
$12,063 交易量
24%
4.7-5.0%
$318 交易量
27%
>5.0%
$5,804 交易量
33%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on South Africa 2026 annual CPI inflation—>5.0% at 32.8% implied probability edging 3.8-4.1% at 29.6% and 4.7-5.0% at 27.0%—reflects the tug-of-war between February's headline CPI cooling to 3.0% (SARB's new target midpoint) on falling fuel and food prices, and upside risks from the Middle East conflict's oil shock pushing crude above $100/barrel. SARB's March MPC held the repo rate at 6.75%, forecasting Q2 CPI near 4% with fuel inflation over 18% before reverting to 3% late 2026, but rand weakness to USD/ZAR ~17 adds imported inflation pressure. Key differentiators include shock persistence, second-round effects, and April fuel levy cuts; watch March CPI release mid-April and May MPC for resolution signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
市场开放时间： Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$19,704结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on South Africa 2026 annual CPI inflation—>5.0% at 32.8% implied probability edging 3.8-4.1% at 29.6% and 4.7-5.0% at 27.0%—reflects the tug-of-war between February's headline CPI cooling to 3.0% (SARB's new target midpoint) on falling fuel and food prices, and upside risks from the Middle East conflict's oil shock pushing crude above $100/barrel. SARB's March MPC held the repo rate at 6.75%, forecasting Q2 CPI near 4% with fuel inflation over 18% before reverting to 3% late 2026, but rand weakness to USD/ZAR ~17 adds imported inflation pressure. Key differentiators include shock persistence, second-round effects, and April fuel levy cuts; watch March CPI release mid-April and May MPC for resolution signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
交易量
$19,704结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on South Africa 2026 annual CPI inflation—>5.0% at 32.8% implied probability edging 3.8-4.1% at 29.6% and 4.7-5.0% at 27.0%—reflects the tug-of-war between February's headline CPI cooling to 3.0% (SARB's new target midpoint) on falling fuel and food prices, and upside risks from the Middle East conflict's oil shock pushing crude above $100/barrel. SARB's March MPC held the repo rate at 6.75%, forecasting Q2 CPI near 4% with fuel inflation over 18% before reverting to 3% late 2026, but rand weakness to USD/ZAR ~17 adds imported inflation pressure. Key differentiators include shock persistence, second-round effects, and April fuel levy cuts; watch March CPI release mid-April and May MPC for resolution signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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