Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% and 17.0%, respectively, reflecting trader consensus on their strong positioning as likely party nominees amid a fragmented field. Vance's edge stems from his recent CPAC straw poll victory (53% on March 28) and dominance in New Hampshire Republican primary polling, bolstered by incumbency advantages in the Trump administration and historical precedents favoring vice presidents in open races. Newsom's surge—closing the gap over the past week—tracks his commanding leads in California Democratic primary polls over Kamala Harris and national hypotheticals. The tight contest underscores uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, economic performance, and potential scandals poised to create separation among battleground states and key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 17.0%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.2%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 6.1%
$488,065,562 交易量
$488,065,562 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
10%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
1%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
1%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
金·卡戴珊
<1%
JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 17.0%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.2%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 6.1%
$488,065,562 交易量
$488,065,562 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
10%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
1%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
1%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
金·卡戴珊
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% and 17.0%, respectively, reflecting trader consensus on their strong positioning as likely party nominees amid a fragmented field. Vance's edge stems from his recent CPAC straw poll victory (53% on March 28) and dominance in New Hampshire Republican primary polling, bolstered by incumbency advantages in the Trump administration and historical precedents favoring vice presidents in open races. Newsom's surge—closing the gap over the past week—tracks his commanding leads in California Democratic primary polls over Kamala Harris and national hypotheticals. The tight contest underscores uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, economic performance, and potential scandals poised to create separation among battleground states and key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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