Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a highly fragmented Peruvian presidential race ahead of the April 12 first-round vote, with 36 candidates splitting support and over 20% undecided or blank/none in late March polls like Ipsos and Datum. Rafael López Aliaga holds a slim lead at 10-17% across recent surveys, buoyed by conservative appeals on crime and stability, while Keiko Fujimori trails closely at 9-13% leveraging her established Fuerza Popular base; Carlos Álvarez has surged to 5-7% post-televised debates via viral clips emphasizing centrist reform. Roberto Sánchez Palomino and Alfonso López Chau lag in single digits. No frontrunner nears 50%, priming a June runoff—late voter shifts or endorsements could propel a top-two matchup, sustaining the tight 23.5%-22.3% López Aliaga-Álvarez duel.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 24%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯 22.3%
凯科·藤森 20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 13.2%
$5,595,855 交易量
$5,595,855 交易量
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
24%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
22%
凯科·藤森
20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
13%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
8%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
6%
豪尔赫·涅托
4%
玛丽索尔·佩雷斯·特略
1%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
1%
约尼·莱斯卡诺
1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
<1%
乔治·福赛思
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞龙
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
<1%
何塞·卢纳
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 24%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯 22.3%
凯科·藤森 20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 13.2%
$5,595,855 交易量
$5,595,855 交易量
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
24%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
22%
凯科·藤森
20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
13%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
8%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
6%
豪尔赫·涅托
4%
玛丽索尔·佩雷斯·特略
1%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
1%
约尼·莱斯卡诺
1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
<1%
乔治·福赛思
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞龙
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
<1%
何塞·卢纳
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a highly fragmented Peruvian presidential race ahead of the April 12 first-round vote, with 36 candidates splitting support and over 20% undecided or blank/none in late March polls like Ipsos and Datum. Rafael López Aliaga holds a slim lead at 10-17% across recent surveys, buoyed by conservative appeals on crime and stability, while Keiko Fujimori trails closely at 9-13% leveraging her established Fuerza Popular base; Carlos Álvarez has surged to 5-7% post-televised debates via viral clips emphasizing centrist reform. Roberto Sánchez Palomino and Alfonso López Chau lag in single digits. No frontrunner nears 50%, priming a June runoff—late voter shifts or endorsements could propel a top-two matchup, sustaining the tight 23.5%-22.3% López Aliaga-Álvarez duel.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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