Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding 77% implied probability as the Democratic nominee in New York's 10th Congressional District primary on June 23, driven by his March 23 launch of a high-profile challenge against incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman (20.5%) following a Supreme Court ruling on March 3 that finalized district lines after months of redistricting litigation. Lander's recent feud with Goldman over a proposed "People's Pledge" to curb dark money and PAC spending from pro-Israel groups has amplified progressive critiques of Goldman's self-funding and AIPAC ties, bolstered by Our Revolution's endorsement on March 20. Meanwhile, District Council 37's backing of Goldman five days ago underscores incumbent defenses, but traders favor Lander's local profile in this Manhattan-Brooklyn battleground. Challengers Cameron Kasky (2.8%), Yuh-Line Niou (2.3%), and Alexa Avilés (1.8%) show minimal traction amid the cleared progressive lane. No recent polls available; upcoming debates and fundraising could shift dynamics.