New York's entrenched Democratic dominance in gubernatorial elections—last Republican win in 2002—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic victor in the 2026 race, reinforced by the party's strong 2024 federal sweep despite national Republican gains. Incumbent Kathy Hochul, who narrowly won in 2022, leads early polling averages against hypothetical GOP challengers like Andrew Cuomo or Lee Zeldin by 20+ points, bolstered by the state's D+15 partisan lean, urban strongholds, and lack of a standout Republican recruit. Primaries loom in June 2026, with the general in November. Rare disruptions like a major scandal, economic crisis, or Trump-era GOP surge in upstate could challenge this, though historical base rates favor continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.New York's entrenched Democratic dominance in gubernatorial elections—last Republican win in 2002—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic victor in the 2026 race, reinforced by the party's strong 2024 federal sweep despite national Republican gains. Incumbent Kathy Hochul, who narrowly won in 2022, leads early polling averages against hypothetical GOP challengers like Andrew Cuomo or Lee Zeldin by 20+ points, bolstered by the state's D+15 partisan lean, urban strongholds, and lack of a standout Republican recruit. Primaries loom in June 2026, with the general in November. Rare disruptions like a major scandal, economic crisis, or Trump-era GOP surge in upstate could challenge this, though historical base rates favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.New York's entrenched Democratic dominance in gubernatorial elections—last Republican win in 2002—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic victor in the 2026 race, reinforced by the party's strong 2024 federal sweep despite national Republican gains. Incumbent Kathy Hochul, who narrowly won in 2022, leads early polling averages against hypothetical GOP challengers like Andrew Cuomo or Lee Zeldin by 20+ points, bolstered by the state's D+15 partisan lean, urban strongholds, and lack of a standout Republican recruit. Primaries loom in June 2026, with the general in November. Rare disruptions like a major scandal, economic crisis, or Trump-era GOP surge in upstate could challenge this, though historical base rates favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's entrenched Democratic dominance in gubernatorial elections—last Republican win in 2002—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic victor in the 2026 race, reinforced by the party's strong 2024 federal sweep despite national Republican gains. Incumbent Kathy Hochul, who narrowly won in 2022, leads early polling averages against hypothetical GOP challengers like Andrew Cuomo or Lee Zeldin by 20+ points, bolstered by the state's D+15 partisan lean, urban strongholds, and lack of a standout Republican recruit. Primaries loom in June 2026, with the general in November. Rare disruptions like a major scandal, economic crisis, or Trump-era GOP surge in upstate could challenge this, though historical base rates favor continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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