US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28, 2026, have degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities through more than 10,000 strikes, including recent waves on March 25-26 targeting sites near Mashhad and Tehran Province. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel, Gulf states, and US bases, though response intensity has slowed amid low morale in its forces. Diplomatic momentum is building, with Iran reviewing a US proposal mediated to end hostilities, Secretary Rubio signaling the war could conclude in weeks, and President Trump claiming Tehran seeks a deal; a potential April 6 deadline looms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Traders weigh sustained air dominance against negotiation risks and escalation triggers like ground operations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$178,212 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
2%
March 30
3%
March 31
5%
4月15日
23%
4月30日
57%
5月31日
77%
6月30日
77%
$178,212 交易量
March 29
$21,321 交易量
2%
March 30
$17,019 交易量
3%
March 31
$77,463 交易量
5%
4月15日
$1,645 交易量
23%
4月30日
$235 交易量
57%
5月31日
$1,556 交易量
77%
6月30日
$5 交易量
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28, 2026, have degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities through more than 10,000 strikes, including recent waves on March 25-26 targeting sites near Mashhad and Tehran Province. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel, Gulf states, and US bases, though response intensity has slowed amid low morale in its forces. Diplomatic momentum is building, with Iran reviewing a US proposal mediated to end hostilities, Secretary Rubio signaling the war could conclude in weeks, and President Trump claiming Tehran seeks a deal; a potential April 6 deadline looms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Traders weigh sustained air dominance against negotiation risks and escalation triggers like ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$178,212结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28, 2026, have degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities through more than 10,000 strikes, including recent waves on March 25-26 targeting sites near Mashhad and Tehran Province. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel, Gulf states, and US bases, though response intensity has slowed amid low morale in its forces. Diplomatic momentum is building, with Iran reviewing a US proposal mediated to end hostilities, Secretary Rubio signaling the war could conclude in weeks, and President Trump claiming Tehran seeks a deal; a potential April 6 deadline looms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Traders weigh sustained air dominance against negotiation risks and escalation triggers like ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$178,212结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28, 2026, have degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities through more than 10,000 strikes, including recent waves on March 25-26 targeting sites near Mashhad and Tehran Province. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel, Gulf states, and US bases, though response intensity has slowed amid low morale in its forces. Diplomatic momentum is building, with Iran reviewing a US proposal mediated to end hostilities, Secretary Rubio signaling the war could conclude in weeks, and President Trump claiming Tehran seeks a deal; a potential April 6 deadline looms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Traders weigh sustained air dominance against negotiation risks and escalation triggers like ground operations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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