The US-Israel military campaign against Iran, initiated with surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting regime leadership and infrastructure, persists into its 30th day amid ongoing exchanges of fire. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Khondab heavy water reactor, and natural gas facilities, with the IDF stating its campaign is nearly complete as of March 29; Iran retaliated via drone attacks on a US base in Jordan and missile barrages, while proxies like the Houthis escalate with launches toward Israel. Diplomatic signals feature a US 15-point proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement—rejected by Tehran, which warns against ground troops—alongside talks in Islamabad involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt. Traders monitor for ceasefire breakthroughs or further escalation, including potential Hormuz Strait disruptions or regime collapse, with no resolution timeline confirmed.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$23,725 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
5%
April 2
5%
April 3
9%
April 4
11%
April 5
11%
April 6
11%
April 7
30%
April 8
39%
April 9
36%
April 10
23%
April 11
41%
April 12
41%
April 13
41%
April 14
13%
April 15
41%
April 16
41%
April 17
41%
April 18
41%
April 19
41%
April 20
42%
April 21
41%
April 22
41%
April 23
41%
April 24
41%
April 25
43%
April 26
41%
April 27
42%
April 28
42%
April 29
39%
April 30
39%
$23,725 交易量
April 1
$25 交易量
5%
April 2
$165 交易量
5%
April 3
$0 交易量
9%
April 4
$0 交易量
11%
April 5
$0 交易量
11%
April 6
$6 交易量
11%
April 7
$0 交易量
30%
April 8
$1 交易量
39%
April 9
$2,763 交易量
36%
April 10
$0 交易量
23%
April 11
$0 交易量
41%
April 12
$0 交易量
41%
April 13
$0 交易量
41%
April 14
$3,343 交易量
13%
April 15
$0 交易量
41%
April 16
$0 交易量
41%
April 17
$0 交易量
41%
April 18
$0 交易量
41%
April 19
$0 交易量
41%
April 20
$0 交易量
42%
April 21
$0 交易量
41%
April 22
$0 交易量
41%
April 23
$0 交易量
41%
April 24
$0 交易量
41%
April 25
$2,740 交易量
43%
April 26
$0 交易量
41%
April 27
$0 交易量
42%
April 28
$0 交易量
42%
April 29
$0 交易量
39%
April 30
$14,681 交易量
39%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Israel military campaign against Iran, initiated with surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting regime leadership and infrastructure, persists into its 30th day amid ongoing exchanges of fire. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Khondab heavy water reactor, and natural gas facilities, with the IDF stating its campaign is nearly complete as of March 29; Iran retaliated via drone attacks on a US base in Jordan and missile barrages, while proxies like the Houthis escalate with launches toward Israel. Diplomatic signals feature a US 15-point proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement—rejected by Tehran, which warns against ground troops—alongside talks in Islamabad involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt. Traders monitor for ceasefire breakthroughs or further escalation, including potential Hormuz Strait disruptions or regime collapse, with no resolution timeline confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$23,725结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Israel military campaign against Iran, initiated with surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting regime leadership and infrastructure, persists into its 30th day amid ongoing exchanges of fire. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Khondab heavy water reactor, and natural gas facilities, with the IDF stating its campaign is nearly complete as of March 29; Iran retaliated via drone attacks on a US base in Jordan and missile barrages, while proxies like the Houthis escalate with launches toward Israel. Diplomatic signals feature a US 15-point proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement—rejected by Tehran, which warns against ground troops—alongside talks in Islamabad involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt. Traders monitor for ceasefire breakthroughs or further escalation, including potential Hormuz Strait disruptions or regime collapse, with no resolution timeline confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$23,725结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel military campaign against Iran, initiated with surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting regime leadership and infrastructure, persists into its 30th day amid ongoing exchanges of fire. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Khondab heavy water reactor, and natural gas facilities, with the IDF stating its campaign is nearly complete as of March 29; Iran retaliated via drone attacks on a US base in Jordan and missile barrages, while proxies like the Houthis escalate with launches toward Israel. Diplomatic signals feature a US 15-point proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement—rejected by Tehran, which warns against ground troops—alongside talks in Islamabad involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt. Traders monitor for ceasefire breakthroughs or further escalation, including potential Hormuz Strait disruptions or regime collapse, with no resolution timeline confirmed.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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