In Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability following the March nonpartisan blanket primary, where incumbent Rep. Mike Johnson (R) captured 72% and challenger Richard Eisenmann (R) took second place at 8%, advancing both Republicans to the November 5 general election and eliminating Democratic contenders. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic in the solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+14), with Johnson benefiting from incumbency and national prominence as House Speaker. Scenarios to challenge this include a major scandal, candidate withdrawal allowing a Democratic write-in surge, or unprecedented turnout shifts, though these face steep barriers given historical base rates for safe seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
91%
民主党
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability following the March nonpartisan blanket primary, where incumbent Rep. Mike Johnson (R) captured 72% and challenger Richard Eisenmann (R) took second place at 8%, advancing both Republicans to the November 5 general election and eliminating Democratic contenders. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic in the solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+14), with Johnson benefiting from incumbency and national prominence as House Speaker. Scenarios to challenge this include a major scandal, candidate withdrawal allowing a Democratic write-in surge, or unprecedented turnout shifts, though these face steep barriers given historical base rates for safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability following the March nonpartisan blanket primary, where incumbent Rep. Mike Johnson (R) captured 72% and challenger Richard Eisenmann (R) took second place at 8%, advancing both Republicans to the November 5 general election and eliminating Democratic contenders. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic in the solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+14), with Johnson benefiting from incumbency and national prominence as House Speaker. Scenarios to challenge this include a major scandal, candidate withdrawal allowing a Democratic write-in surge, or unprecedented turnout shifts, though these face steep barriers given historical base rates for safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability following the March nonpartisan blanket primary, where incumbent Rep. Mike Johnson (R) captured 72% and challenger Richard Eisenmann (R) took second place at 8%, advancing both Republicans to the November 5 general election and eliminating Democratic contenders. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic in the solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+14), with Johnson benefiting from incumbency and national prominence as House Speaker. Scenarios to challenge this include a major scandal, candidate withdrawal allowing a Democratic write-in surge, or unprecedented turnout shifts, though these face steep barriers given historical base rates for safe seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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