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政治·主要

KY-04共和党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

KY-04共和党初选获胜者

托马斯·马西 63%

艾德·加尔雷恩 35.5%

妮可·李·艾辛顿 <1%

罗伯特·威尔斯二世 <1%

Polymarket

$125,845 交易量

托马斯·马西 63%

艾德·加尔雷恩 35.5%

妮可·李·艾辛顿 <1%

罗伯特·威尔斯二世 <1%

Polymarket

$125,845 交易量

托马斯·马西

$91,470 交易量

63%

艾德·加尔雷恩

$34,374 交易量

36%

妮可·李·艾辛顿

$0 交易量

<1%

罗伯特·威尔斯二世

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 62.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by his track record of supermajority victories in past primaries and strong grassroots base in the safe Republican district. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL, holds 35.3% following President Trump's March 11 endorsement and district rally, which initially narrowed the gap but saw Massie's odds rise to 65-68% on prediction markets amid attacks highlighting Gallrein's reliance on out-of-state mega-donors, including reports of Democrat contributions comprising 80% of his maximum donations. Massie's March 19 ad labeled Gallrein a "Trump traitor," reinforcing local incumbency advantages ahead of early voting. Minor candidates remain negligible.

Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 62.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by his track record of supermajority victories in past primaries and strong grassroots base in the safe Republican district. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL, holds 35.3% following President Trump's March 11 endorsement and district rally, which initially narrowed the gap but saw Massie's odds rise to 65-68% on prediction markets amid attacks highlighting Gallrein's reliance on out-of-state mega-donors, including reports of Democrat contributions comprising 80% of his maximum donations. Massie's March 19 ad labeled Gallrein a "Trump traitor," reinforcing local incumbency advantages ahead of early voting. Minor candidates remain negligible.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 62.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by his track record of supermajority victories in past primaries and strong grassroots base in the safe Republican district. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL, holds 35.3% following President Trump's March 11 endorsement and district rally, which initially narrowed the gap but saw Massie's odds rise to 65-68% on prediction markets amid attacks highlighting Gallrein's reliance on out-of-state mega-donors, including reports of Democrat contributions comprising 80% of his maximum donations. Massie's March 19 ad labeled Gallrein a "Trump traitor," reinforcing local incumbency advantages ahead of early voting. Minor candidates remain negligible.

Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 62.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by his track record of supermajority victories in past primaries and strong grassroots base in the safe Republican district. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL, holds 35.3% following President Trump's March 11 endorsement and district rally, which initially narrowed the gap but saw Massie's odds rise to 65-68% on prediction markets amid attacks highlighting Gallrein's reliance on out-of-state mega-donors, including reports of Democrat contributions comprising 80% of his maximum donations. Massie's March 19 ad labeled Gallrein a "Trump traitor," reinforcing local incumbency advantages ahead of early voting. Minor candidates remain negligible.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"托马斯·马西"，概率为 63%，其次是"艾德·加尔雷恩"，概率为 36%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 63¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 63%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"已产生 $125.8K 的总交易量（自Dec 1, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"托马斯·马西"，概率为 63%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 63%。紧随其后的结果是"艾德·加尔雷恩"，概率为 36%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。