Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's re-election bid in solidly Republican Kansas drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability for a GOP win, reflecting the state's long history of Senate dominance—last Democratic victor in 1939—and Marshall's strong fundraising with over $4 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Marshall filed for re-election on January 22, 2026, and toured the state in February touting tax cuts, facing minimal primary opposition from Chase LaPorte. A fragmented Democratic primary field of eight candidates, including Christy Davis and Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout contender, per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Absent a high-profile recruit like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly or polling shifts, the race remains low-risk for Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$13,459 交易量
$13,459 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
83%
民主党
16%
$13,459 交易量
$13,459 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$7,300 交易量
83%
民主党
$6,158 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's re-election bid in solidly Republican Kansas drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability for a GOP win, reflecting the state's long history of Senate dominance—last Democratic victor in 1939—and Marshall's strong fundraising with over $4 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Marshall filed for re-election on January 22, 2026, and toured the state in February touting tax cuts, facing minimal primary opposition from Chase LaPorte. A fragmented Democratic primary field of eight candidates, including Christy Davis and Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout contender, per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Absent a high-profile recruit like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly or polling shifts, the race remains low-risk for Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$13,459结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's re-election bid in solidly Republican Kansas drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability for a GOP win, reflecting the state's long history of Senate dominance—last Democratic victor in 1939—and Marshall's strong fundraising with over $4 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Marshall filed for re-election on January 22, 2026, and toured the state in February touting tax cuts, facing minimal primary opposition from Chase LaPorte. A fragmented Democratic primary field of eight candidates, including Christy Davis and Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout contender, per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Absent a high-profile recruit like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly or polling shifts, the race remains low-risk for Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$13,459结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's re-election bid in solidly Republican Kansas drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability for a GOP win, reflecting the state's long history of Senate dominance—last Democratic victor in 1939—and Marshall's strong fundraising with over $4 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Marshall filed for re-election on January 22, 2026, and toured the state in February touting tax cuts, facing minimal primary opposition from Chase LaPorte. A fragmented Democratic primary field of eight candidates, including Christy Davis and Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout contender, per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Absent a high-profile recruit like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly or polling shifts, the race remains low-risk for Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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