Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.1% "No" for former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero's arrest by March 31, anchored in the absence of active warrants or charges despite prior scrutiny. Spain's National Court dismissed key complaints in February alleging ties to Venezuela's Maduro regime and narco-terrorism, while Zapatero testified voluntarily before a Senate commission on March 2 regarding the Plus Ultra scandal—linked to detained businessman Julio Martínez, from whom he received consulting fees—without detention or indictment. U.S. investigations remain unconfirmed rumors from late 2025, facing jurisdictional hurdles for a foreign ex-leader. With three days left, only abrupt developments like a surprise extradition request could alter resolution, though judicial precedents favor delays for high-profile figures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$140,175 交易量
$140,175 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$140,175 交易量
$140,175 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.1% "No" for former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero's arrest by March 31, anchored in the absence of active warrants or charges despite prior scrutiny. Spain's National Court dismissed key complaints in February alleging ties to Venezuela's Maduro regime and narco-terrorism, while Zapatero testified voluntarily before a Senate commission on March 2 regarding the Plus Ultra scandal—linked to detained businessman Julio Martínez, from whom he received consulting fees—without detention or indictment. U.S. investigations remain unconfirmed rumors from late 2025, facing jurisdictional hurdles for a foreign ex-leader. With three days left, only abrupt developments like a surprise extradition request could alter resolution, though judicial precedents favor delays for high-profile figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 15, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
交易量
$140,175结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 15, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.1% "No" for former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero's arrest by March 31, anchored in the absence of active warrants or charges despite prior scrutiny. Spain's National Court dismissed key complaints in February alleging ties to Venezuela's Maduro regime and narco-terrorism, while Zapatero testified voluntarily before a Senate commission on March 2 regarding the Plus Ultra scandal—linked to detained businessman Julio Martínez, from whom he received consulting fees—without detention or indictment. U.S. investigations remain unconfirmed rumors from late 2025, facing jurisdictional hurdles for a foreign ex-leader. With three days left, only abrupt developments like a surprise extradition request could alter resolution, though judicial precedents favor delays for high-profile figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$140,175结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 15, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.1% "No" for former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero's arrest by March 31, anchored in the absence of active warrants or charges despite prior scrutiny. Spain's National Court dismissed key complaints in February alleging ties to Venezuela's Maduro regime and narco-terrorism, while Zapatero testified voluntarily before a Senate commission on March 2 regarding the Plus Ultra scandal—linked to detained businessman Julio Martínez, from whom he received consulting fees—without detention or indictment. U.S. investigations remain unconfirmed rumors from late 2025, facing jurisdictional hurdles for a foreign ex-leader. With three days left, only abrupt developments like a surprise extradition request could alter resolution, though judicial precedents favor delays for high-profile figures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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