Ongoing cross-border strikes persist between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Iran-backed group rejecting truce talks on March 26 amid Israeli airstrikes on over 500 Lebanese targets and ground advances in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah's March 2 rocket barrages that ended the fragile November 2024 ceasefire. Lebanese officials proposed direct negotiations and Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River, but Paris talks collapsed last week over Israel's insistence on prior compliance and buffer zone control, deepening fractures in Lebanon's coalition government. U.S.-Iran diplomacy seeks to include Lebanon in a broader de-escalation, yet trader consensus prices low ceasefire odds before Trump's administration transition, pending verifiable disarmament signals or UNIFIL enforcement amid daily violations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$375,440 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
3月31日
2%
6月30日
40%
4月30日
12%
$375,440 交易量
3月31日
$335,532 交易量
2%
6月30日
$38,470 交易量
40%
4月30日
$1,437 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing cross-border strikes persist between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Iran-backed group rejecting truce talks on March 26 amid Israeli airstrikes on over 500 Lebanese targets and ground advances in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah's March 2 rocket barrages that ended the fragile November 2024 ceasefire. Lebanese officials proposed direct negotiations and Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River, but Paris talks collapsed last week over Israel's insistence on prior compliance and buffer zone control, deepening fractures in Lebanon's coalition government. U.S.-Iran diplomacy seeks to include Lebanon in a broader de-escalation, yet trader consensus prices low ceasefire odds before Trump's administration transition, pending verifiable disarmament signals or UNIFIL enforcement amid daily violations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$375,440结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing cross-border strikes persist between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Iran-backed group rejecting truce talks on March 26 amid Israeli airstrikes on over 500 Lebanese targets and ground advances in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah's March 2 rocket barrages that ended the fragile November 2024 ceasefire. Lebanese officials proposed direct negotiations and Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River, but Paris talks collapsed last week over Israel's insistence on prior compliance and buffer zone control, deepening fractures in Lebanon's coalition government. U.S.-Iran diplomacy seeks to include Lebanon in a broader de-escalation, yet trader consensus prices low ceasefire odds before Trump's administration transition, pending verifiable disarmament signals or UNIFIL enforcement amid daily violations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$375,440结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing cross-border strikes persist between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Iran-backed group rejecting truce talks on March 26 amid Israeli airstrikes on over 500 Lebanese targets and ground advances in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah's March 2 rocket barrages that ended the fragile November 2024 ceasefire. Lebanese officials proposed direct negotiations and Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River, but Paris talks collapsed last week over Israel's insistence on prior compliance and buffer zone control, deepening fractures in Lebanon's coalition government. U.S.-Iran diplomacy seeks to include Lebanon in a broader de-escalation, yet trader consensus prices low ceasefire odds before Trump's administration transition, pending verifiable disarmament signals or UNIFIL enforcement amid daily violations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题