A month into the US-Israel war on Iran—launched February 28, 2026, via surprise airstrikes—the conflict shows no signs of abating, with ongoing military actions driving trader caution on near-term resolution. US and Israeli forces have struck over 10,000 targets, destroying two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production, including recent waves in Tehran and Isfahan eliminating IRGC commanders. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel amid Day 30 escalations, as USS Tripoli deployed 3,500 troops. Diplomatically, Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators on March 25, though its foreign minister rejected talks; Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are involved in efforts. Key watchpoints include negotiation progress and further strikes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$8,445,924 交易量
Mar 15, 2026
3月31日
1%
4月15日
15%
4月7日
4%
4月30日
26%
5月15日
38%
6月30日
60%
12月31日
80%
$8,445,924 交易量
3月31日
$4,347,391 交易量
1%
4月15日
$957,639 交易量
15%
4月7日
$142,376 交易量
4%
4月30日
$729,681 交易量
26%
5月15日
$1,218,671 交易量
38%
6月30日
$828,970 交易量
60%
12月31日
$221,197 交易量
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A month into the US-Israel war on Iran—launched February 28, 2026, via surprise airstrikes—the conflict shows no signs of abating, with ongoing military actions driving trader caution on near-term resolution. US and Israeli forces have struck over 10,000 targets, destroying two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production, including recent waves in Tehran and Isfahan eliminating IRGC commanders. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel amid Day 30 escalations, as USS Tripoli deployed 3,500 troops. Diplomatically, Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators on March 25, though its foreign minister rejected talks; Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are involved in efforts. Key watchpoints include negotiation progress and further strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
交易量
$8,445,924结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A month into the US-Israel war on Iran—launched February 28, 2026, via surprise airstrikes—the conflict shows no signs of abating, with ongoing military actions driving trader caution on near-term resolution. US and Israeli forces have struck over 10,000 targets, destroying two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production, including recent waves in Tehran and Isfahan eliminating IRGC commanders. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel amid Day 30 escalations, as USS Tripoli deployed 3,500 troops. Diplomatically, Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators on March 25, though its foreign minister rejected talks; Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are involved in efforts. Key watchpoints include negotiation progress and further strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$8,445,924结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
A month into the US-Israel war on Iran—launched February 28, 2026, via surprise airstrikes—the conflict shows no signs of abating, with ongoing military actions driving trader caution on near-term resolution. US and Israeli forces have struck over 10,000 targets, destroying two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production, including recent waves in Tehran and Isfahan eliminating IRGC commanders. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel amid Day 30 escalations, as USS Tripoli deployed 3,500 troops. Diplomatically, Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators on March 25, though its foreign minister rejected talks; Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are involved in efforts. Key watchpoints include negotiation progress and further strikes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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