Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$7,959,973 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
3月31日
2%
4月15日
20%
4月7日
8%
4月30日
35%
5月15日
48%
6月30日
64%
12月31日
83%
$7,959,973 交易量
3月31日
$4,177,773 交易量
2%
4月15日
$896,569 交易量
20%
4月7日
$74,487 交易量
8%
4月30日
$653,900 交易量
35%
5月15日
$1,158,496 交易量
48%
6月30日
$799,432 交易量
64%
12月31日
$199,315 交易量
83%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
交易量
$7,959,973结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$7,959,973结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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