Amid the US-Iran war now in its fourth week, traders assess slim odds of Tehran agreeing to surrender its 450 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for over 10 bombs if further processed—by near-term deadlines. On March 25, the US delivered a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding Iran end uranium enrichment, transfer the stockpile to IAEA custody, dismantle facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, and allow full inspections; no acceptance followed amid Iran's defiant conditions for talks. IAEA reports confirm unverifiable suspension of enrichment post-strikes, while President Trump rejected Russia's offer to relocate material, fueling discussions of special forces seizure at Isfahan. Ceasefire or Oman-mediated indirect negotiations could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
$25,798 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
9%
June 30
19%
December 31
34%
$25,798 交易量
April 30
$2,228 交易量
9%
June 30
$2,348 交易量
19%
December 31
$21,223 交易量
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war now in its fourth week, traders assess slim odds of Tehran agreeing to surrender its 450 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for over 10 bombs if further processed—by near-term deadlines. On March 25, the US delivered a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding Iran end uranium enrichment, transfer the stockpile to IAEA custody, dismantle facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, and allow full inspections; no acceptance followed amid Iran's defiant conditions for talks. IAEA reports confirm unverifiable suspension of enrichment post-strikes, while President Trump rejected Russia's offer to relocate material, fueling discussions of special forces seizure at Isfahan. Ceasefire or Oman-mediated indirect negotiations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$25,798结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war now in its fourth week, traders assess slim odds of Tehran agreeing to surrender its 450 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for over 10 bombs if further processed—by near-term deadlines. On March 25, the US delivered a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding Iran end uranium enrichment, transfer the stockpile to IAEA custody, dismantle facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, and allow full inspections; no acceptance followed amid Iran's defiant conditions for talks. IAEA reports confirm unverifiable suspension of enrichment post-strikes, while President Trump rejected Russia's offer to relocate material, fueling discussions of special forces seizure at Isfahan. Ceasefire or Oman-mediated indirect negotiations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$25,798结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran war now in its fourth week, traders assess slim odds of Tehran agreeing to surrender its 450 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for over 10 bombs if further processed—by near-term deadlines. On March 25, the US delivered a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding Iran end uranium enrichment, transfer the stockpile to IAEA custody, dismantle facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, and allow full inspections; no acceptance followed amid Iran's defiant conditions for talks. IAEA reports confirm unverifiable suspension of enrichment post-strikes, while President Trump rejected Russia's offer to relocate material, fueling discussions of special forces seizure at Isfahan. Ceasefire or Oman-mediated indirect negotiations could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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