Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service surveys. March 2026 saw three major outbreaks from March 5-16 alone, yielding 177 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the historical March average of around 80—spurred by persistent Gulf moisture, strong wind shear, and a transitioning ENSO from La Niña remnants to neutral conditions that historically correlate with elevated spring activity. January-February tallied 75 preliminary reports, matching norms, but the March surge has elevated year-to-date counts well above pace for the 1050-1250 total forecasted by long-range models. Peak tornado months (April-June) loom with SPC outlooks signaling continued severe potential amid model consensus for above-normal severe weather parameters; however, inherent forecast uncertainty from variable jet stream patterns could temper totals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1250+ 57%
1000–1049 23%
950–999 21.6%
<950 13%
$46,441 交易量
$46,441 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
14%
950–999
22%
1000–1049
23%
1050–1099
25%
1100–1149
22%
1150–1199
9%
1200–1249
13%
1250+
57%
1250+ 57%
1000–1049 23%
950–999 21.6%
<950 13%
$46,441 交易量
$46,441 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
$20,381 交易量
14%
950–999
$0 交易量
22%
1000–1049
$0 交易量
23%
1050–1099
$0 交易量
25%
1100–1149
$0 交易量
22%
1150–1199
$0 交易量
9%
1200–1249
$13,509 交易量
13%
1250+
$12,551 交易量
57%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service surveys. March 2026 saw three major outbreaks from March 5-16 alone, yielding 177 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the historical March average of around 80—spurred by persistent Gulf moisture, strong wind shear, and a transitioning ENSO from La Niña remnants to neutral conditions that historically correlate with elevated spring activity. January-February tallied 75 preliminary reports, matching norms, but the March surge has elevated year-to-date counts well above pace for the 1050-1250 total forecasted by long-range models. Peak tornado months (April-June) loom with SPC outlooks signaling continued severe potential amid model consensus for above-normal severe weather parameters; however, inherent forecast uncertainty from variable jet stream patterns could temper totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$46,441结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service surveys. March 2026 saw three major outbreaks from March 5-16 alone, yielding 177 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the historical March average of around 80—spurred by persistent Gulf moisture, strong wind shear, and a transitioning ENSO from La Niña remnants to neutral conditions that historically correlate with elevated spring activity. January-February tallied 75 preliminary reports, matching norms, but the March surge has elevated year-to-date counts well above pace for the 1050-1250 total forecasted by long-range models. Peak tornado months (April-June) loom with SPC outlooks signaling continued severe potential amid model consensus for above-normal severe weather parameters; however, inherent forecast uncertainty from variable jet stream patterns could temper totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$46,441结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service surveys. March 2026 saw three major outbreaks from March 5-16 alone, yielding 177 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the historical March average of around 80—spurred by persistent Gulf moisture, strong wind shear, and a transitioning ENSO from La Niña remnants to neutral conditions that historically correlate with elevated spring activity. January-February tallied 75 preliminary reports, matching norms, but the March surge has elevated year-to-date counts well above pace for the 1050-1250 total forecasted by long-range models. Peak tornado months (April-June) loom with SPC outlooks signaling continued severe potential amid model consensus for above-normal severe weather parameters; however, inherent forecast uncertainty from variable jet stream patterns could temper totals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题