Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) short-range forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting mild highs of 13–14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers from a lingering low-pressure system over the Black Sea. Recent heavy rainfall through late March and early April 1 has suppressed temperatures near 15°C, favoring cooler outcomes over climatological averages of 15–16°C, with northerly winds limiting diurnal warming. Model spread highlights uncertainty in afternoon clearing and exact peak timing, with new 00Z/12Z runs expected daily to refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official MGM observations at Istanbul Airport.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
15°C 29%
13°C 24%
14°C 21%
11°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
10°C or below
2%
11°C
18%
12°C
17%
13°C
24%
14°C
21%
15°C
20%
16°C
12%
17°C
11%
18°C
8%
19°C
7%
20°C or higher
2%
15°C 29%
13°C 24%
14°C 21%
11°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
10°C or below
$10 交易量
2%
11°C
$12 交易量
18%
12°C
$22 交易量
17%
13°C
$30 交易量
24%
14°C
$5 交易量
21%
15°C
$16 交易量
20%
16°C
$5 交易量
12%
17°C
$7 交易量
11%
18°C
$5 交易量
8%
19°C
$8 交易量
7%
20°C or higher
$10 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) short-range forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting mild highs of 13–14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers from a lingering low-pressure system over the Black Sea. Recent heavy rainfall through late March and early April 1 has suppressed temperatures near 15°C, favoring cooler outcomes over climatological averages of 15–16°C, with northerly winds limiting diurnal warming. Model spread highlights uncertainty in afternoon clearing and exact peak timing, with new 00Z/12Z runs expected daily to refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official MGM observations at Istanbul Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
交易量
$129结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) short-range forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting mild highs of 13–14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers from a lingering low-pressure system over the Black Sea. Recent heavy rainfall through late March and early April 1 has suppressed temperatures near 15°C, favoring cooler outcomes over climatological averages of 15–16°C, with northerly winds limiting diurnal warming. Model spread highlights uncertainty in afternoon clearing and exact peak timing, with new 00Z/12Z runs expected daily to refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official MGM observations at Istanbul Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$129结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 13–15°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) short-range forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting mild highs of 13–14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers from a lingering low-pressure system over the Black Sea. Recent heavy rainfall through late March and early April 1 has suppressed temperatures near 15°C, favoring cooler outcomes over climatological averages of 15–16°C, with northerly winds limiting diurnal warming. Model spread highlights uncertainty in afternoon clearing and exact peak timing, with new 00Z/12Z runs expected daily to refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official MGM observations at Istanbul Airport.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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