Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 26-28°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with 27°C and 28°C tied at 25% implied probabilities, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in this range at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station. Warm southerly winds from the South China Sea are advecting humid air into the Pearl River Delta, promoting daytime heating, but model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, sea breeze timing, and potential convective showers common during the spring transition. Historical early-April highs average 25-27°C, providing analogs, while urban heat island effects could nudge toward 28°C under clearer skies. Daily forecast updates from China Meteorological Administration through April 4 will likely sharpen resolution criteria.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
27°C 26%
28°C 25%
26°C 20%
29°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
6%
25°C
12%
26°C
20%
27°C
26%
28°C
25%
29°C
13%
30°C or higher
7%
27°C 26%
28°C 25%
26°C 20%
29°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
20°C or below
$669 交易量
<1%
21°C
$759 交易量
1%
22°C
$570 交易量
2%
23°C
$405 交易量
5%
24°C
$156 交易量
6%
25°C
$209 交易量
12%
26°C
$207 交易量
20%
27°C
$226 交易量
26%
28°C
$174 交易量
25%
29°C
$195 交易量
13%
30°C or higher
$310 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 26-28°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with 27°C and 28°C tied at 25% implied probabilities, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in this range at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station. Warm southerly winds from the South China Sea are advecting humid air into the Pearl River Delta, promoting daytime heating, but model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, sea breeze timing, and potential convective showers common during the spring transition. Historical early-April highs average 25-27°C, providing analogs, while urban heat island effects could nudge toward 28°C under clearer skies. Daily forecast updates from China Meteorological Administration through April 4 will likely sharpen resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
交易量
$3,881结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 26-28°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with 27°C and 28°C tied at 25% implied probabilities, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in this range at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station. Warm southerly winds from the South China Sea are advecting humid air into the Pearl River Delta, promoting daytime heating, but model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, sea breeze timing, and potential convective showers common during the spring transition. Historical early-April highs average 25-27°C, providing analogs, while urban heat island effects could nudge toward 28°C under clearer skies. Daily forecast updates from China Meteorological Administration through April 4 will likely sharpen resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$3,881结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 26-28°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with 27°C and 28°C tied at 25% implied probabilities, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in this range at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station. Warm southerly winds from the South China Sea are advecting humid air into the Pearl River Delta, promoting daytime heating, but model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, sea breeze timing, and potential convective showers common during the spring transition. Historical early-April highs average 25-27°C, providing analogs, while urban heat island effects could nudge toward 28°C under clearer skies. Daily forecast updates from China Meteorological Administration through April 4 will likely sharpen resolution criteria.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题