Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast ensemble spreads from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Chengdu's April 6 high temperature near 21°C amid light rain and overcast conditions during the Qingming Festival holiday. Recent CMA updates show daytime highs of 21°C with southerly moisture inflows and frontal systems typical for the Sichuan Basin in early spring, where basin topography often enhances cloud persistence, capping peaks. Differentiating 20°C from 22°C hinges on precipitation timing—prolonged showers could cool surfaces by 1–2°C via evaporative effects, while partial clearing might allow brief insolation spikes; historical early April averages of 20–22°C underscore this variability. Watch CMA's next 24–48-hour advisories for refined guidance as resolution approaches.